【1】Market Performance: The BU main contract 2601 rose in early trading but quickly retreated, with a 1.41% intraday fluctuation, closing flat at 3,032 yuan/ton—down 0.5% over seven days. The next-month contract 2602 edged up 0.03%, maintaining a Contango structure (near-term lower, long-term higher).

【2】Spot Market: ① Shandong heavy asphalt spot price rose 0.3% to 3,030 yuan/ton (down 0.6% weekly), with basis narrowing to -2 yuan/ton (weekly -4 yuan/ton). ② East China heavy asphalt spot traded at 3,270 yuan/ton (premium to futures), with basis at 238 yuan/ton (weekly -104 yuan/ton).

【3】Crack Spread: ① BU-Brent crack widened to -284 yuan/ton (weekly -6 yuan/ton), diverging from Brent’s flat trend due to weak asphalt fundamentals. BU fell 0.5% while Brent rose 0.2% (as of 3 PM close). ② BU-SC/BU-LU/BU-FU spreads moved -5/-11/+35, with BU-LU underperforming.

【4】Fundamentals: - **Supply**: Refineries may cut output amid thinning margins. - **Demand**: Seasonal chill dampens regional demand; low downstream uptake persists. - **Inventory**: High social stocks pressure prices amid slow destocking. - **Cost**: Weaker oil prices leave asphalt lagging in the energy-chemical sector.

【5】Short-Term Outlook: Weak demand and inventory overhang cap upside. Year-end OPEC+ supply risks may drag prices lower, though downside appears limited technically.

【6】Strategy: ① Partial profit-taking on 2601 short positions. ② Sell 2601 put options. ③ BU-Brent crack shorts to exit on dips.