These days, even thieves are studying up on AI. The story goes like this. Recent rumors suggest that the overseas warehouse of Suzhou Doright Photonics, a subsidiary of Dongshan Precision Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (002384.SZ), was robbed, with a batch of optical modules and optical chips stolen. The purported value is as high as $27 million, representing a direct loss of 20%. When the news broke, the general public hadn't fully processed it before investors grew restless—optical modules are currently the "hard currency" of the A-share market. For a company to lose them is practically no different from losing gold. The current market price for an 800G optical module is around $350, with a weight between 31 and 48 grams. This translates to a value of about 70 RMB per gram. For a 1.6T module, the per-gram value could exceed 100 RMB. Not long after, Dongshan Precision's securities department issued a response: the incident did occur, but the amount was not that exaggerated. Furthermore, the goods were insured, so the impact on profits is minimal. However, on July 23rd, the capital market was spooked by the thieves. Dongshan Precision's stock closed down 5% for the day, wiping nearly 20 billion RMB off its market value. The concern is that once someone has broken this barrier, more thieves may follow. Under the "broken windows theory," it's uncertain which optical module company might be targeted next. It's likely that other companies in the sector are feeling nervous. Frankly, the most striking aspect of this incident isn't the scale of the loss, but the thieves' "product selection skills." Just three years ago, most people couldn't even pronounce the name "optical module" correctly. Now, it has become a target for theft. What does this indicate? It suggests that in the AI era, even criminals need to brush up on their industry chain knowledge. In the past, thieves would case a joint by checking the locks. Now, they also have to check financial reports and research notes—1.6T is more valuable than 800G; modules with EML chips are worth more than standard ones; silicon photonics modules might require consideration of how easily they can be fenced. Times have changed; even thieves are "embracing technology." Why are optical modules so attractive to thieves? While the thieves clearly have an eye for valuable goods, what has truly elevated optical modules to "hard currency" status is their pricing logic. The current price increase in this cycle isn't driven by speculation but is supported by technological iteration. As the capabilities of NVIDIA (NVDA.US) GPUs continuously upgrade, the demand for optical module transmission rates also grows—from 400G to 800G to 1.6T. While the unit price of each new generation rises, the cost per gigabit of data transmitted actually decreases. In simple terms: the goods are more expensive, but efficiency has multiplied several times over, making customers feel they're getting a good deal. Moreover, global demand for optical modules, especially 1.6T, is surging. A recent conference call from industry leader Zhongji Innolight made it clear: demand for 800G is still rising, and 1.6T orders are already booked through 2027. Dongshan Precision is also one of the biggest beneficiaries of the optical module boom. Its stock price surged by as much as 231% this year. Even after a recent significant correction, as of July 23rd, it still holds a gain of 144%. The company's interim report forecasts a net profit of 2.9 to 3.0 billion RMB, a near-triple year-on-year increase. Therefore, this theft operation is essentially a vote of confidence with their feet, affirming that optical modules are "hard currency"—a more convincing argument than any number of brokerage research reports. In the past, the craziest sign of a bull market was "everyone talking about stocks." Now, the standard has been upgraded: it's "thieves stealing optical modules." The underlying implication is that optical modules have become valuable enough for criminals to specifically target. A haul worth $27 million (even if estimated at retail price)—how much copper wiring would a thief need to steal to match that? In the first half of this year, the biggest market trend was "standing in the light" of optical modules. Now, this trend has blown into the "criminal underworld." Even thieves understand their value, indicating it's no longer a niche theme but an open secret. However, precisely because it's an open secret, it's time for caution. Brokerage reports may paint a rosy picture, talking about the ramp-up of 1.6T, 3.2T on the horizon, and continued growth in capital expenditure from North American cloud providers. All of that may be true, but stock prices have already digested much of this expectation.

A Final Suggestion

Finally, here's a suggestion for Dongshan Precision: perhaps it's time to upgrade the security system at the new factory in Thailand? After all, 1.6T is just beginning to ramp up, 3.2T is still in development, and the future "hard currency" will only become more valuable. Let's not provide any more material for market anecdotes.