Dongxing Securities: Seizing Investment Opportunities in the New Cycle of the Quick-Frozen Industry by Benchmarking Japanese Experience

Stock News
03/11

Dongxing Securities has released a research report stating that as the domestic quick-frozen industry enters a new cycle, companies with comprehensive capabilities in "B-end supply chain management" and "C-end product innovation" are expected to possess stronger competitiveness. The report also highlights leading enterprises with established cold chain logistics or channel presence in lower-tier markets, which are likely to capture more market share in this new phase. The firm is optimistic about the leading quick-frozen company, ANJOY FOOD (02648), citing its robust channel capabilities and product innovation strengths in both B-end and C-end markets, as well as its overall control over the supply chain, positioning it to maintain its leading status in the new cycle. Key viewpoints from Dongxing Securities are as follows: Since 2020, the competitive landscape of China's quick-frozen industry has undergone significant consolidation, with major changes in consumer environments, channel strategies, and supply chain development. The firm believes the industry has bottomed out in the current cycle starting from 2020 and is poised to embark on a new growth phase alongside economic recovery. To grasp the trends of this new cycle and make forward-looking strategic moves, the report analyzes the development of Japan's quick-frozen industry, summarizing its growth trajectory amid demographic and economic shifts, offering insights and references for the future direction of China's quick-frozen sector. The core characteristics of Japan's quick-frozen food industry, based on a study of its evolution since the 1950s, including channel transitions, competitive dynamics, and consumption patterns, are: the foundational role of advanced cold chain infrastructure, a transition from B-end to C-end channel development, product upgrades from basic agricultural and aquatic items to high-value-added prepared foods, and the industry's rapid adaptation to societal changes. From a market competition perspective, changes in the concentration of Japan's quick-frozen market align with variations in overall production volume, reflecting industry maturity. Benchmarking against Japanese experience, China's frozen food industry is at a critical juncture, transitioning from rapid expansion to structural optimization. The firm forecasts the following trends for China's frozen food sector: B-end penetration of prepared dishes will continue to rise, serving as the core driver of industry growth; the C-end market will accelerate its upgrade towards high-quality, healthy, and convenient prepared foods to meet the demands of new consumer generations; industry concentration will further increase, with leading firms consolidating their advantages through scale, branding, and full-industry-chain layouts; cold chain logistics will expand more rapidly into third- and fourth-tier cities and counties, unlocking substantial market potential. Risks include potential underperformance in China's overall economic development, slower-than-expected recovery in industry demand, and management shortcomings in enterprises.

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