On September 15, according to preliminary data released by the University of Michigan on Friday, the September consumer confidence index fell to 55.4, down from 58.2 in August and below nearly all economists' forecasts in the Bloomberg survey. The data showed that consumers expect prices to rise 4.8% annually over the next year, unchanged from the previous month, while inflation expectations for the next 5-10 years jumped to 3.9%, up from 3.5% in August. Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan's consumer survey, stated: "Consumers' expected probability of personal unemployment has risen significantly this year and continued to climb in September, indicating they are concerned that adverse changes in the labor market will affect them personally." She added: "Additionally, persistently high price pressures continue to squeeze consumers." The survey also revealed that approximately 60% of respondents spontaneously mentioned tariffs, reflecting how ongoing trade policy uncertainty is eroding consumer sentiment. Breakdown data showed the September current conditions index declined to 61.2 from 61.7 in August, while the expectations index fell to 51.8 from 55.9. From a political perspective, sentiment indices for Republicans and independents dropped to four-month lows, while Democrats' outlook expectations improved slightly. The survey was conducted between August 26 and September 8.

Additionally, Goldman Sachs' precious metals team led by Lina Thomas recently maintained their mid-2026 target price forecast of $4,000 per ounce, believing that structurally enhanced central bank gold demand and ETF inflows will continue to drive gold prices higher. The firm expects central bank gold demand to persist for three years, with the primary driver being that emerging market central banks' gold allocation ratios remain significantly below those of developed markets. According to Goldman Sachs analysis, three major buyer groups are behind gold's recent rally. ETF accumulation contributed approximately 1.5 percentage points to the recent 6% gain; enhanced speculative positioning contributed about 1.2 percentage points; and potential re-acceleration of central bank demand following the summer lull. In July this year, global central banks and institutions' gold demand in London's over-the-counter market totaled 48 tons, below Goldman Sachs' forecast of 80 tons monthly average for 2025. This aligns with seasonal patterns: central bank purchases typically slow during summer and re-accelerate starting in September. Based on this, Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for gold to reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026. The report suggests that Fed easing policy expectations and a 30% US recession risk over the next 12 months will jointly support ETF inflows.

Today's key data to watch includes the Eurozone's July seasonally adjusted trade balance, the US September New York Fed Manufacturing Index, and Canada's July manufacturing sales monthly rate.

Gold/USD Gold traded higher on Friday with modest daily gains, currently trading around 3645. Persistent Fed rate cut expectations remain the primary driver supporting gold's climb. Additionally, weak US economic data during the period and lingering market risk aversion provided some support for safe-haven gold. However, the US Dollar Index's stabilization limited gold's upside potential. Today, watch for resistance near 3660, with support around 3630.

AUD/USD The Australian dollar declined on Friday with modest daily losses, currently trading around 0.6660. Besides profit-taking and technical selling near the 0.6700 level pressuring the exchange rate, the US Dollar Index's stabilization also weighed on the currency. However, persistent Fed rate cut expectations limited the pair's downside correction. Today, watch for resistance near 0.6750, with support around 0.6550.

USD/JPY USD/JPY traded higher on Friday with modest daily gains, currently trading around 147.40. Short covering and technical buying near the 147.00 level provided some support for the exchange rate, along with the US Dollar Index's stabilization. Additionally, concerns about Japan's political uncertainty also supported the pair. However, persistent Fed rate cut expectations and expectations for Bank of Japan rate hikes limited the pair's rebound potential. Today, watch for resistance near 148.50, with support around 146.50.