Is AI Optimism Fading? Three Optical Module Leaders Tumble; Analysts Say Share Consolidation, Not a Trend Reversal, as Fund Flows into 159363 Exceed 100 Million Shares

Deep News
07/28

On Tuesday, July 28, global AI computing hardware experienced a synchronized pullback, with A-share optical module and CPO stocks taking a heavy hit. Eoptolink Technology Inc Ltd (SZ: 300502) plunged over 17%, falling below its 250-day moving average, while Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (SZ: 300308) dropped more than 15%, and Tianfu Communication Co Ltd (SZ: 300394) declined over 13%, retreating to its 250-day moving average.

Among notable ETFs, the heavily weighted optical module leader, the ChiNext AI ETF (159363), fell sharply, closing down 9.43% and hitting a new low for this round of correction. Despite the decline, the fund saw a net inflow of 112 million shares in a single day. According to market information, the widespread sell-off in AI computing hardware stocks may be attributed to a combination of factors.

The immediate trigger appears to be reports that Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is considering providing a $250 billion guarantee for OpenAI, sparking a crisis of confidence regarding the artificial inflation of AI demand. External pressures also played a role, with global tech stocks, including Nvidia, South Korean memory giants, and the Nikkei index, experiencing significant declines, which directly impacted A-share markets. Furthermore, sentiment is fragile, with investors remaining highly cautious ahead of major tech earnings reports and the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting, making any negative news prone to trigger panic selling.

Looking at the broader picture for optical modules, the ChiNext AI Index has corrected over 28% from its previous high on June 25, hitting a new low for this adjustment cycle. Analysts suggest that the recent pullback in the optical communication sector is a natural correction after an over-concentration of shareholding structures, rather than a reversal of the industry trend. The flip side of concentrated shareholding is the concentration of industrial logic. As a core component of computing interconnection, the optical communication sector holds a leading advantage in terms of AI computing infrastructure demand, order certainty, and earnings visibility. The scarcity of its industrial logic is precisely the fundamental reason for concentrated capital allocation.

Guosheng Securities believes that shareholding structures will ultimately align with fundamentals. Recalling a similar period in January 2026, the sector experienced a share consolidation process before reverting to its industrial logic. As short-term speculative holdings are gradually absorbed and the shareholding structure is reshuffled, the prosperity of the optical communication track remains confirmed. The firm advises continued attention on optical module leaders and related optical component companies, with potential catalysts including interim earnings season and progress in the overseas computing power supply chain.

The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) and its off-exchange feeder funds (Class A 023407, Class C 023408) focus on optical module CPO leaders, with the underlying index containing approximately 40% exposure to Zhongji Innolight, Eoptolink Technology, and Tianfu Communication, positioning it as a core player in the AI computing sector. The fund's scale has recently exceeded 7.2 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of over 1 billion yuan in the past six months, leading among the eight ETFs tracking the same index in both scale and liquidity.

*Data sources: Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Shanghai Stock Exchange, etc.

*Reference for institutional views: Guosheng Securities report, "The Joys and Sorrows of Google's Earnings"

ETF-related fee description: When investors subscribe for or redeem fund shares, the subscription/redemption agent may charge a commission of up to 0.5%. On-exchange trading fees are subject to the actual rates charged by securities firms, with no sales service fee charged.

Feeder fund fee description: The ChiNext AI ETF Feeder Fund Class C charges no subscription fee; the redemption fee is 1.5% for holdings within 7 days and 0% for holdings of 7 days or more; the sales service fee is 0.3%. The ChiNext AI ETF Feeder Fund Class A charges a subscription fee of 1% for amounts under 1 million yuan, 0.6% for amounts between 1 million yuan and 2 million yuan, and 1,000 yuan per transaction for amounts of 2 million yuan or more; the redemption fee is 1.5% for holdings within 7 days and 0% for holdings of 7 days or more; no sales service fee is charged.

Risk warning: The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) passively tracks the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence Index, which was established on December 28, 2018, and published on July 11, 2024. The index's annual returns from 2021 to 2025 were 17.57%, -34.52%, 47.83%, 38.44%, and 106.35%, respectively. The annualized volatility over the same period was 23.73%, 27.34%, 38.02%, 45.42%, and 41.1%. The index's constituent stocks are adjusted according to its compilation rules at appropriate times, and its back-tested historical performance does not indicate future index performance. The index constituent stocks mentioned in this article are for display purposes only and do not constitute any form of investment advice, nor do they represent the holdings or trading activities of any fund managed by the fund manager. According to the fund manager's assessment, the ChiNext AI ETF (159363) carries a risk rating of R4 (medium-high risk) and is suitable for aggressive (C4) investors and above. Please refer to the sales institution for a suitability assessment. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, or any form of expression) is for reference only. Investors are responsible for their own investment decisions. Furthermore, any views, analyses, or forecasts in this article do not constitute investment advice to readers, and the author shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this content. Fund investment carries risks. Past performance of a fund does not guarantee future results. The performance of other funds managed by the same fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of the fund's performance. Invest in funds with caution. MACD golden cross signal formed, these stocks are performing well!

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