GTHT Forecasts Accelerated Penetration of Mid-to-Low-End New Energy Vehicles in 2025, Expects Moderate Overall Growth in 2026

Stock News
03/03

GTHT has released a research report projecting that domestic passenger vehicle wholesale sales will reach 23.797 million units in 2025, representing a 6% year-on-year increase. This growth is driven by policy support and a recovery in consumer spending, demonstrating resilient expansion. Passenger vehicle exports are expected to total 5.731 million units, up 21% year-on-year, benefiting from accelerated overseas market expansion by domestic brands and the enhanced competitiveness of Chinese-made new energy vehicles. In particular, mid-to-low-end new energy vehicles are experiencing accelerated market penetration. According to terminal registration data, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the 100,000 to 150,000 yuan passenger vehicle segment has risen from 45% in 2024 to 54% in 2025. Looking ahead to 2026, the institution anticipates passenger vehicle sales to reach approximately 29.82 million units, a modest 1% year-on-year increase. Sales of new energy passenger vehicles are projected to be around 17.05 million units, up 10% year-on-year, with penetration rates continuing to rise, although overall growth is expected to moderate. The report suggests that new vehicle replacement policies will provide marginal benefits for mid-to-high-end new energy models. Supply in segments such as high-end new energy vehicles, MPVs, and off-road models is expected to diversify significantly. The outlook is favorable for automakers with leading global footprints, strong performance in the premium segment, and outstanding intelligent capabilities.

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