According to the latest quotes from the Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network, the average price for 1# nickel was 126,500 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,100 yuan per ton from the previous day. The average price for electrolytic nickel (plate) was 127,450 yuan per ton, up 750 yuan per ton. The premium for Jinchuan nickel remained high, while the discount for Russian nickel widened.

On the futures side, the main Shanghai nickel contract NI2608 opened at 126,300 yuan, surged to an intraday high of 127,390 yuan, and closed at 124,800 yuan per ton. This represented a decline of 1,120 yuan, or 0.89%, from the previous day, with a settlement price of 126,040 yuan per ton. The intraday maximum fluctuation was 2,650 yuan. Trading volume was 46,488 lots, open interest stood at 74,732 lots, decreasing by 1,307 lots on the day.

In overseas markets, the latest LME nickel price was $16,190 per ton, down $200, a decrease of 1.22%.

Analysis of Key Drivers

On the supply side, uncertainty persists regarding the approval progress of Indonesia's RKAB quotas, leading to increased divergence in market expectations for Indonesia's nickel ore production in 2026. Nickel pig iron prices showed slight weakness, with 10-12% high-grade NPI ex-factory prices ranging from 1,050 to 1,080 yuan per nickel point.

On the demand side, survey data indicates that stainless steel production schedules for July showed a slight month-on-month decline, with 300-series stainless steel output expected to decrease by 50,000 tons. The operating rate of new energy battery precursor enterprises has recovered to 75%, while nickel sulfate prices remained stable.

Regarding inventories, the latest LME nickel inventory data was 274,230 tons, with a single-day drawdown of 210 tons. The absolute inventory level remains relatively high.

The Shanghai-London price ratio was 7.73, narrowing from the previous day, indicating relative weakness in overseas markets.

Market Summary

Shanghai nickel broke below the 125,000 yuan level, with core pressure coming from weakening stainless steel demand and rumors surrounding Indonesia's RKAB. In the short term, Shanghai nickel may oscillate within the range of 124,000 to 126,000 yuan. Data suggests nickel prices are currently caught in a tug-of-war between declining stainless steel production schedules and recovering new energy demand. Analysts hold the view that Shanghai nickel is likely to experience weak, range-bound movement in the near term, awaiting further guidance from upcoming stainless steel production data.

Key factors to monitor in the coming session include Indonesia's nickel ore policies, changes in nickel pig iron prices, and July's stainless steel production schedule data.