The military conflict between the United States and Iran is expected to have profound and significant impacts on global economic development. Investors in capital markets and business operators with global exposure are now facing substantial uncertainty in the external environment. Their primary focus has shifted from pursuing high growth and high returns to seeking safety and survival amid the crisis. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil transportation, is seeing its transit security threatened by military conflict, which could directly drive up international oil prices and subsequently disrupt the layout and capacity release of the petrochemical industry along the Persian Gulf coast. This impact will transmit through industrial chains to related raw material segments of global manufacturing, leading to rising energy and associated raw material costs. In the short term, this may push up the Producer Price Index (PPI) in some economies. If cost pressures continue to transmit, they may further affect the Consumer Price Index (CPI), potentially exacerbating stagflation risks in energy-import-dependent economies against the backdrop of a sluggish global economic recovery.

Short-term impact: Severe market volatility and investor risk aversion In the short term, geopolitical uncertainty triggered by military conflict has significantly impacted global capital markets, causing differentiated turbulence in stock markets. For example, South Korea's KOSPI index repeatedly triggered circuit breakers during the escalation phase of the conflict, plunging 12.06% in a single day on March 4, marking the largest single-day decline in the country's stock market history. This vividly illustrates the conflict's impact on market stability in certain regions. As the conflict situation evolves dynamically, capital markets will continue to react, potentially experiencing phased declines following escalation or retaliatory rebounds after de-escalation. Faced with high uncertainty brought by war, investors are generally adopting emergency risk-averse behaviors, selling risk assets and increasing holdings of safe-haven assets such as gold and government bonds. Meanwhile, temporary disruptions to global supply chains caused by the conflict may affect short-term profit expectations for some companies. Industries heavily reliant on energy imports, such as technology, manufacturing, and shipping, may face pressures from rising costs and supply chain interruptions. This prompts investors to proactively adjust their investment portfolios and strategies in capital markets based on their risk preferences and profit maximization principles.

Long-term effects: Global supply chain adjustments and intensified deglobalization In the long term, if the U.S.-Iran military conflict persists or recurs, global industrial chains will undergo adaptive structural adjustments. Transit uncertainty at the critical logistics node of the Strait of Hormuz will disrupt the normal operation of global supply chains. Particularly for globalized enterprises relying on stable, low-cost international logistics, security risks at key international logistics nodes will prompt a shift from short-term risk aversion to long-term strategic adjustments. Sudden military conflicts may cause temporary supply chain disruptions for companies, leading to production halts and phased losses. To address international logistics risks, companies may adopt strategies to increase safety stock of raw materials and semi-finished products in the short term. This will tie up more working capital, reduce capital turnover rates, and somewhat increase operating costs. If companies switch to alternative transportation solutions, logistics costs will rise further, while facing pressure from sharply increased shipping insurance premiums. This trend is prompting companies to incorporate geopolitical risks and security of key international logistics nodes as important considerations in global industrial layout and supply chain design, moving beyond单纯 relying on labor costs and tariff levels as core decision-making bases. Manufacturing companies with global operations are gradually shifting from efficiency-focused globalization models to regional modular development that balances efficiency and security, gradually forming the prototype of a new global industrial layout. The formation and stabilization of this regionalized layout may show strengthening trends in the short term, with phased characteristics in its impact on the global industrial chain landscape.

Coping strategies: Seeking balance amid dynamics Facing complex and changing geopolitical risks, investors and companies need to adopt systematic, multi-layered coping strategies to find balance points amid uncertainty: focusing on risk aversion and survival in the short term with应激性defensive measures; promoting adaptive adjustments in the medium term to achieve structural diversification; and optimizing strategic layout in the long term to pursue ecological and resilient development. Business operators need to build response systems across short, medium, and long-term horizons against global supply chain disruption risks, considering their own scale and industry attributes.

Short-term strategy: Focus on defensive survival and supply chain stability For companies, the short-term key is to avoid core production line shutdowns caused by interruptions in raw materials or key components, maintaining supply chain resilience through inventory management and operational flexibility. Internally, implement lean management by optimizing the usage rhythm of key raw materials through technological improvements, process adjustments, alternative material sourcing, or increased recycling rates, using existing inventory to maintain core production line operations and buying time to find new supply sources. Externally, expand supply channels and strengthen保障capabilities by establishing close emergency collaboration mechanisms with core suppliers, potentially using advance payments or short-term locking agreements to优先secure key resources, while precisely managing in-transit and nearby inventory to ensure key materials优先meet core order requirements.

Medium-term strategy: Promote adaptive adjustment and build buffered supply networks The core is shifting from passive defense to active adaptation, reconstructing more resilient supply networks through spatial layout optimization and key node design to withstand external持续性shocks. This means companies need to transition from relying on single, efficient linear supply chains to building diversified, buffered network systems. Specific measures include: promoting supply source diversification by systematically developing qualified suppliers from different geographical regions for strategic materials like energy, key minerals, and basic chemical raw materials, enabling risk dispersion and quick switching during emergencies; implementing forward inventory strategies by moving away from past efficiency-oriented "zero inventory" approaches, establishing regional distribution centers or emergency warehouses near major consumer markets or logistics hubs to pre-stock key components and semi-finished products, thereby shortening replenishment cycles after unexpected events and enhancing resilience against transportation disruptions.

Long-term strategy: Optimize strategic layout for globalization-regionalization rebalancing The key is elevating supply chain resilience to the corporate strategic level through industrial layout adjustments, supply chain optimization, or business model changes, thereby transforming external uncertainty into relatively controllable structural conditions and achieving dynamic balance between global efficiency and regional security. In this process, companies may trade reduced global efficiency for greater certainty and adaptability. Specific approaches include establishing global multi-point strategic layouts to create hybrid operating models combining globalization and regional concentration, building relatively complete, independently operable production-supply-sales systems in major economic blocks like North America, Europe, and Asia, enabling each regional operating unit to complete controllable operational closed loops from procurement and production to sales and after-sales services within their regions as much as possible. Simultaneously, utilize digital platforms to achieve coordination and visual management across global blocks, while still optimizing global resource allocation when necessary to reflect the efficiency of global布局. Although this increases initial investment and operational complexity, it effectively avoids systemic risks and fundamentally enhances corporate survivability in turbulent environments.

The impact of the U.S.-Iran military conflict on global capital markets and industrial chains demonstrates significant phased and differentiated characteristics, bringing both short-term market turbulence and supply chain shocks while also driving adaptive adjustments in global industrial chains and investment strategies. Investors and companies need to objectively recognize the boundaries of the conflict's impact, avoiding excessive panic and absolute judgments, instead adopting layered, implementable coping strategies based on their specific needs. In the future, as the conflict situation evolves dynamically and global macroeconomic policies provide countermeasures, market and industrial chain adjustments will gradually rationalize, with more resilient market participants likely to gain new development opportunities during this adjustment period.