JPMorgan released a research report noting that AIA Group Ltd (01299) has underperformed slightly year-to-date, with its stock price down 0.3% compared to the Hang Seng Index's 0.9% rise. It is currently trading at 1.1 times the 2027 estimated price-to-embedded value, with a total shareholder return yield of approximately 4%. The bank raised its target price from HK$112 to HK$118, reflecting a valuation roll-forward from the end of 2026 to the end of 2027, and maintains an "overweight" rating.

The firm expects solid first-half 2026 results, with new business value reaching US$3.26 billion, up 15% year-on-year. Operating profit after tax is forecast at US$3.97 billion, a 10% increase, while the interim dividend is projected at HK$0.54 per share, also up 10%, supported by steady balance sheet expansion and double-digit growth in both life insurance sales and cash flow.

However, JPMorgan indicated that AIA Group Ltd's near-term catalysts are limited, and visibility regarding Hong Kong offshore-related regulatory issues is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term. As a result, ahead of the 2026 first-half earnings release, the bank prefers Chinese insurance stocks PING AN (02318) and CHINA LIFE (02628), citing their more attractive relative valuations and yields.