Gold Market Trend Analysis:
On September 15th, gold continues to maintain a strong bullish foundation with an overall bias toward upward oscillation. Key resistance levels at 3655 and 3665 warrant close attention. However, a rational perspective on current trends is necessary: while the long-term bullish structure remains intact, the market has not exhibited extreme unilateral upward momentum. Instead, it displays characteristics of "high-level wide-range consolidation." Friday's late-session correction within the 3655-3625 range directly confirms the market's short-term lack of sustained momentum for either direction, suggesting this week will likely be dominated by high-level oscillation without excessive expectations for dramatic price movements.
From a temporal perspective, this week's action can be clearly divided into two phases: "pre-decision" and "post-decision." Monday and Tuesday, with time remaining before Wednesday-Thursday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision, market sentiment leans toward caution. Neither bulls nor bears possess sufficient momentum to break the balance, expecting continued high-level oscillation with range-bound trading strategies. From Wednesday to Friday, as the decision approaches and results are announced, market expectations regarding Fed policy direction will be concentrated, likely pushing prices out of the oscillation range toward trend-based changes requiring close attention to directional guidance from the decision.
From a technical analysis perspective, since gold's decline from the 3675 high, daily charts have not shown clear unilateral direction. Instead, they present alternating positive and negative patterns with narrowing amplitude, while candlesticks continue operating above moving averages. This formation clearly indicates oscillating consolidation within a bullish trend rather than trend reversal signals. This week's daily chart focus should anchor on two major support nodes: the 3600 area serves as a short-term strength-weakness divider - if breached, the market may shift from strong oscillation to weak adjustment. The 3500 area represents the medium-term bull-bear conversion line - only upon losing this level might fundamental trend reversal be triggered. Currently, 3600 should be treated as the primary defensive line.
4-hour cycle oscillation signals are more intuitive: Bollinger Bands continue contracting with highly converged moving average systems, completely lacking the momentum release required for unilateral movements, temporarily locking in the 3615-3660 broad range. From cyclical patterns, before Bollinger Bands open, the probability of range breakouts on Monday and Tuesday is extremely low. Therefore, these two trading days can revolve around high-certainty trades within 3615 (lower support) to 3660 (upper resistance) without excessive expectations for breakthrough space beyond the range.
Combining early session real-time movements, gold has completed short-term adjustment after opening, with current levels around 3630. Following oscillation logic, intraday positioning can utilize support near the range's lower boundary for long positions: entering around 3620 with stops below 3615 (aligned with 4-hour range lower boundary), targeting oscillation upward space with primary focus on 3655-3660 area (overlapping 4-hour range upper boundary and daily key resistance). If prices rebound to 3655-3660 range and face pressure, light short positions can be attempted with stops above 3660, targeting pullbacks to 3620-3615 area, forming closed-loop operations of buying low and selling high within the range. Note that after early adjustment, current levels are in the range's middle section, making direct entry inadvisable. Wait for prices to approach 3620 support or 3655-3660 resistance, then combine with candlestick stabilization/pressure signals for enhanced operational precision.