Oil prices are poised to register their largest weekly gain in over three months as U.S. President Donald Trump intensifies pressure on Russian energy buyers in an effort to bring the Ukraine war to an end.

On Friday (September 26), Brent crude oil prices held steady above $69 per barrel, with weekly gains reaching approximately 4%. This follows Trump's criticism earlier this week of NATO members for purchasing energy from Russia, an OPEC+ member nation. Subsequently, he pressured Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to halt Russian oil purchases and engaged in discussions with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban regarding energy security matters.

Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump stated that Turkey "has many options," while Hungary and Slovakia are landlocked countries that are "somewhat dependent on one pipeline."

Meanwhile, Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have created pressure on Russia's physical energy supply capabilities. According to officials familiar with the discussions, European diplomats warned the Kremlin this week that NATO stands ready to respond forcefully, including shooting down Russian aircraft, should Russia further violate NATO airspace.

Barbara Lambrecht, analyst at Commerzbank, noted: "The main factors driving oil prices higher include market concerns that sanctions against Russia will tighten further, and increasingly frequent Ukrainian targeted attacks on Russian energy infrastructure that could lead to significant production disruptions and supply interruptions."

However, despite this week's price gains, oil remains trapped within the narrow trading range established since early August, as investors weigh escalating geopolitical tensions against current market supply-demand fundamentals. Forecasting agencies, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), anticipate that global crude markets may face oversupply later this year, driven by increased production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partners (OPEC+), as well as rising output from non-OPEC+ producers, particularly in the Americas.

Iraqi Kurdish crude oil exports via pipeline to Turkey's Ceyhan port are scheduled to resume on Saturday (September 27), further adding to global oil supply. The export interruption, which has lasted over two years, will initially add 230,000 barrels per day to international markets, with potential to increase to 500,000 barrels per day in the future.