New research from S&P Global Commodity Insights indicates that U.S. liquefied natural gas exports are poised to double within the next five years, positioning LNG as the country's second-largest net export industry, trailing only civilian aircraft and parts.

The study forecasts that, under current conditions, U.S. feedgas demand for LNG will double to 36 billion cubic feet per day within five years, a figure 25% higher than previous baseline projections. The United States, already the world's largest LNG supplier, is expected to capture over one-third of the global market share.

This research updates an analysis from December 2024, reflecting the surge in investment following the lifting of the U.S. LNG export permit pause in January 2025. Since then, seven new projects have reached final investment decisions, with more anticipated in the next 6 to 12 months. S&P Global estimates that total investment across the LNG supply chain will surpass $1 trillion by 2040.

In terms of economic impact, the study projects that by 2040, LNG export activities will support 550,000 jobs annually, contribute $1.4 trillion to U.S. GDP, generate over $2.9 trillion in total business revenue, $206 billion in federal and state tax revenue, and nearly $630 billion in labor income. An estimated 42% of the jobs and 33% of the GDP contribution are expected to occur outside of natural gas-producing regions.

Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global, noted that the rapid growth of U.S. LNG has exceeded all expectations, evolving into a $44 billion annual industry over the past decade.

The research also highlights that the export expansion is expected to have a limited impact on domestic natural gas prices. From 2026 to 2031, residential gas costs are projected to increase by an average of only 1.6%. Eric Eyberg, Vice President of Natural Gas and LNG at S&P Global Commodity Insights, stated that the U.S. possesses over 45 years of commercially proven natural gas resources, coupled with the world's most interconnected pipeline network, allowing for both increased exports and sustained low domestic prices.