Caitong Securities has initiated coverage on UBTECH ROBOTICS (09880) with a "Buy" rating, projecting the company's revenue for 2025-2027 to reach RMB 19.41/27.50/36.27 billion respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 48.69%/41.67%/31.90%, corresponding to P/S ratios of 33/23/17 times for 2025-2027. As one of the leading domestic humanoid robot companies, UBTECH ROBOTICS is approaching a commercialization inflection point, with its latest placement raising approximately HK$2.41 billion. The main viewpoints are as follows:
Three Questions on Commercialization Inflection Point: Scalable Scenarios? Cost Reduction Feasible? Data Circulation Possible?
1) Walker humanoid robots have entered practical training at renowned manufacturing enterprises' factories. In 2024, revenue from industry-customized robots increased by 126% year-over-year.
2) UBTECH ROBOTICS develops servo drivers and some key components in-house. Servo drivers account for approximately 10% of the total machine cost, with in-house development reducing costs by over 50%. The company has launched China's first pure RGB binocular vision solution, with compact design and algorithms significantly reducing hardware costs and power consumption.
3) The company has accumulated "billion-level high-quality industrial datasets" across multiple automotive factories, iterating the world's first humanoid robot multimodal reasoning large model.
Three-Stage Commercialization Path: Evolution from Single-Unit Penetration to Swarm Intelligence and Ecosystem Loop
The company's industrial humanoid robots Walker S1, Walker S2, and commercial humanoid robot Walker C form a leading product matrix. The company has implemented the world's first multi-robot collaborative operation at Zeekr's factory and established deep cooperation with Easyhome, gradually promoting the "hardware + brain + operation" ecosystem loop. The company maintains an optimistic outlook for humanoid robot orders, planning to mass-produce 1,000 humanoid robots in 2025. As of September 2025, the company's total industrial humanoid robot order value has approached RMB 430 million.
Bionic Mechanisms Define Industry Standards, Full-Stack Self-Development Builds Ecosystem Moat
The company conducts full-stack self-research technology, leading participation in industry standard formulation, completing technical verification of linear joints, iterating pressure-sensing dexterous hands to the fourth generation, and achieving autonomous battery swapping for robots. The company's Swarm Brain Network 2.0 and Co-Agent constitute the AI dual-loop system for industrial humanoid robots, while the company utilizes reinforcement learning to achieve human-like motion control.