BOJ Vice Governor Emphasizes Policy Adjustments for Bond Market Stability, Considers Middle East in Rate Hike Timing

Stock News
05/26

As Japanese government bond yields reach a near three-decade high, Bank of Japan (BOJ) Vice Governor Ryozo Himino stated on Tuesday that maintaining market confidence through appropriate policy adjustments is crucial. He explicitly noted that developments in the Middle East will be a key factor in determining the timing and pace of interest rate hikes. Regarding the recent rise in Japanese bond yields, Himino indicated that this is likely part of a global surge in yields, driven by market concerns that escalating fuel costs due to Middle East conflicts could accelerate global inflation. "The key is to maintain market confidence that the central bank will appropriately adjust the degree of monetary easing at a suitable pace in the future, based on economic, price, and financial conditions, to properly control inflation," Himino said. Furthermore, he emphasized that, given Japan's real interest rates remain extremely low, the central bank expects to continue raising its policy rate. However, "the timing and pace of adjustments will be carefully decided by assessing the probability of achieving the baseline scenario and the associated risks, based on a thorough analysis of how the Middle East situation affects Japan's economy and prices." Recently, Japanese government bonds have faced selling pressure due to global inflation fears stemming from the Iran conflict and market expectations of Japanese fiscal expansion. The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield touched 2.8% on Monday, its highest level since October 1996. Himino's remarks are widely interpreted by the market as being open to a near-term rate hike, with widespread expectations that the BOJ will raise rates at its policy meeting next month. However, the policy path also faces pressure from the government. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, known for favoring monetary easing, subtly signaled last week her hope that the central bank would maintain policy stability to cushion the economic impact of the Iran conflict. She also called for a supplementary budget to help households cope with rising living costs. Following a meeting with BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on Friday, Takaichi expressed hope that the central bank would consider the government's measures to curb inflation and strengthen the economy when making decisions. According to pricing in the overnight swap market, traders' expectations for a BOJ rate hike in June rose above 80% last week but slightly retreated to around 76% after the meeting.

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