Last night, the U.S. October ADP employment data was released, showing an increase of 42,000 jobs—the largest rise since July this year—surpassing the expected 28,000 and revising September's figure upward to a decline of 29,000. Following the release, market sentiment turned cautious, with gold and silver prices briefly retreating before quickly recovering, maintaining a high-level consolidation pattern. So, what’s the short-term outlook for gold and silver? What key factors should investors monitor? Let’s discuss.

Recently, as earlier long positions exited, market risk appetite rose, and expectations for a Fed rate cut in December weakened, precious metals prices entered a high-level adjustment phase. With most major macro events already priced in and November being a relatively quiet period for macroeconomic data, the upward momentum for gold remains unclear in the short term. For silver, prices have retreated as overseas price discrepancies eased, but the structural issue of low London market inventories persists, suggesting potential for a rebound in silver prices.

In the near term, precious metals investors should focus on two key aspects: First, the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory. Following Chair Powell’s hawkish tone at the October meeting, market expectations for a December rate cut have declined. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December stands at 62.5%, while the chance of unchanged rates is 37.5%. By January next year, the likelihood of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 54.8%, with a 25.9% probability of unchanged rates and a 19.4% chance of a 50-basis-point reduction. Divisions within the Fed regarding further rate cuts remain significant. Second, global trade conditions—any renewed disruptions could reignite gold’s safe-haven demand.

Overall, gold and silver are likely to maintain their high-level consolidation in the short term, warranting cautious trading. However, the long-term bullish drivers for precious metals—such as continued central bank gold purchases, hedging against persistent inflation, and de-dollarization trends—remain intact.

This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Receiving this material does not establish any business relationship between Guotai Junan Futures and the reader. The company does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information, and investors assume all risks. The views expressed are solely the author’s analysis and do not represent the company’s stance. Unauthorized reproduction, modification, or citation is prohibited. For reprints, please credit Guotai Junan Futures and ensure content integrity without misrepresentation.