Orient Securities released a research report indicating that air travel during the May Day holiday is expected to show steady growth, while the car rental sector has seen a surge, with overall bookings up more than 75% year-on-year. In several cities across Zhejiang, Shandong, Hunan, Hainan, Yunnan, Liaoning, Gansu, and Xinjiang, the spring break for primary and secondary schools has been scheduled consecutively with the May Day holiday, creating a 7-8 day "Golden Week." The holiday catalyst is clear, and the performance outlook for the travel sector remains strong. It is recommended to focus on leading companies in specific segments: 1) Scenic spots sector: prioritize destinations with highly scarce natural resources or those showing strong first-quarter growth. 2) Chain hotels sector: focus on leaders expanding through asset-light models and penetrating lower-tier markets. 3) Nationwide network-based business models: pay attention to relevant online travel agency (OTA) players. The main views of Orient Securities are as follows:

Air travel is expected to grow steadily, while self-driving trips emerge as a highlight. According to Flight Master DAST forecasts, the average daily number of flights during the holiday is projected to reach nearly 16,300, a 0.4% increase compared to 2025. The number of air passengers is estimated to be around 11.359 million, with an average of nearly 2.272 million per day, representing a 1.9% year-on-year growth. The average price for domestic economy class tickets, including taxes, is approximately 989.9 yuan, up 25.0% compared to 2019 and 11.8% compared to 2025. In the self-driving sector, data from CAR Inc. shows that as of April 23, overall car rental bookings for the May Day holiday increased by more than 75% year-on-year, with cross-city travel orders nearly tripling. The average rental period reached 7 days, and bookings covering more than 5 days of the holiday period grew by 70%. Tuniu data also indicates that self-driving tour bookings saw a year-on-year increase of over 30% in traveler numbers.

Regions implementing consecutive spring breaks exhibit higher travel enthusiasm. In cities where the spring break aligns with the May Day holiday, forming a 7-8 day "Golden Week," travel demand has significantly outpaced other areas. For instance, Dingxi City in Gansu Province scheduled its spring break from May 6 to 9, connecting with the Labor Day holiday and the adjacent weekend (May 10), resulting in a 10-day holiday. The extended break, coupled with pleasant weather, has further stimulated demand for parent-child and family travel. According to Tuniu's "2026 May Day Travel Consumption Trends Report," cities like Lishui, Yongzhou, Zibo, and Huzhou saw traveler bookings increase by more than three times year-on-year. Quzhou, Taizhou, Yantai, and Rizhao experienced growth of over two times, while Zhoushan and Yueyang also saw increases exceeding 100%.

Concerts and music festivals drive traffic, with lower-tier markets growing rapidly. Data from Tujia shows that homestay bookings in Yuxi (due to Hua Chenyu's concert) and Luzhou (music festival) increased by 7-8 times year-on-year. In Guangzhou, four concerts by the group Teenage generated a 50% rise in homestay bookings around the city. On Tujia’s platform, travelers born after 2000 accounted for over 60% of homestay bookings in concert locations, favoring shared accommodations for group travel and post-event gatherings. Meanwhile, Qunar data indicates that hotel bookings in popular third-tier and lower cities doubled year-on-year, and flight bookings to smaller airports in these cities from provincial capitals increased by more than 50%.

Risk warnings include potential slower-than-expected recovery in macroeconomic conditions and household income, which could suppress discretionary spending and travel demand. Uncertainties in industry and regulatory policies may impact sectors such as hotels, scenic spots, duty-free, and education. Increased competition and rising costs could erode corporate profitability. Additionally, heightened volatility in market valuations may lead to periodic adjustments in the sector.