Gold (XAU/USD) continued its modest upward trend during Tuesday's Asian trading session, with prices climbing to around $4,770, marking an intraday gain of over 0.65%. This rebound is primarily driven by the market's reassessment of the global macro risk environment. Following the failure of the United States and Iran to achieve a substantive breakthrough over the weekend, market participants still anticipate continued negotiations. While geopolitical risks persist, expectations for a temporary easing have helped keep risk aversion within manageable limits.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance stated in an interview that the talks had yielded some "constructive progress" and that reaching a framework agreement remains possible. This sentiment has somewhat improved market risk appetite, though it has not entirely eliminated uncertainty. Consequently, gold is being supported by safe-haven demand while simultaneously being capped by improving risk sentiment, resulting in a pattern of high-level consolidation.
Simultaneously, a generally weaker U.S. dollar is providing additional support for gold. The market is divided over the Federal Reserve's future interest rate path, particularly as inflation data, pushed higher by energy prices, has reignited debate. Despite some data showing U.S. inflation increases near four-year highs, futures markets still imply expectations for a rate cut by year-end. This dynamic erodes the dollar's real yield advantage, thereby enhancing gold's appeal.
Uncertainty in the energy market remains a significant backdrop for gold's volatility. As tensions in the Middle East intensify, concerns are rising over shipping security risks in the Strait of Hormuz, amplifying crude oil price fluctuations and further reinforcing inflation expectations. This combination of "geopolitical risk plus energy inflation" typically supports gold, as the metal possesses anti-inflation properties in a high-inflation environment.
However, from a market structure perspective, bulls have not yet achieved a strong breakout. Although the current price has rebounded to $4,775, it continues to face resistance from the 200-period moving average, located near approximately $4,854, which serves as a key short-term technical resistance zone. As long as the price fails to decisively break above this level, the overall trend can only be considered a weak rebound structure rather than a trend reversal.
From a daily chart perspective, gold is currently in a recovery phase following its previous decline from higher levels. While a temporary support base has formed near $4,650, leading to a rebound, the overall trend has not yet broken free from a medium-term correction pattern. Momentum indicators suggest that bullish forces are recovering but have not yet gained full dominance, indicating the market remains in a phase of tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the short-term trend shows a structure of "rebound recovery + momentum convergence." The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in a neutral-to-strong zone, near the 57 level, indicating recovered bullish momentum that has not yet entered overbought territory. The MACD histogram is gradually converging towards the zero line, suggesting that downward pressure is weakening, but a clear trend reversal signal has not been fully confirmed.
Technically, key resistance levels above are situated at $4,854 (200-period moving average) and $4,913 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level). A decisive break above these levels could potentially open the path towards the $5,133 area and even the historical region around $5,413. Conversely, if the rebound fails, the price may retest support at $4,759, with further support levels located at $4,604 and the $4,413 area.