Lithium mining stocks continued their recent decline, with Ganfeng Lithium Group Co.,Ltd. (01772) falling 3.37% to HK$29.8 and Tianqi Lithium Corporation (09696) dropping 2.79% to HK$27.88 as of press time.

On the news front, lithium carbonate futures weakened persistently in the week before the National Day holiday. On September 28, the main lithium carbonate futures contract fell below 120,000 yuan per ton, hitting a new low for the year and down about 40% from this year's May high; on September 30, the battery-grade lithium carbonate price from Shanghai Metals Market was 120,000 yuan per ton, compared with 157,000 yuan per ton on August 31, bringing the September decline in lithium carbonate to 24%, the largest single-month drop since the second half of 2026.

Tonghui Futures believes that with supply easing while demand expectations remain weak, lithium prices lack upward drivers in the short term. On the supply side, overseas mine increments continue to arrive at ports and mine prices are weakening, while domestic smelting capacity utilization remains stable; although Brazil's Sigma suspension and Dazhong Mining's reserve increase news have somewhat disturbed market sentiment, actual short-term supply contraction is limited, and expectations of looser long-term supply have instead deepened. On the demand side, cathode material prices continue to fall and terminal retail sales decline year-on-year; after pre-holiday stockpiling ends, downstream purchasing has turned cautious, making it difficult to form effective support.