Goldman Sachs Raises Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US) Profit Forecast: 3nm/5nm Capacity to Remain Tight Until 2027

Stock News
01/09

On January 4th local time, Goldman Sachs raised its price target for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM.US) from NT$1,720 to NT$2,330, while maintaining a "Strong Buy" rating. The firm has increased its profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by up to 15%, driven by a "multi-year growth engine" in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. According to analyst Bruce Lu, the exponential growth in demand for AI chips indicates that chip demand will outstrip supply. Lu anticipates that Taiwan Semiconductor will invest over $150 billion in capital expenditures between 2026 and 2028 to meet the surging demand, including $54 billion in 2027 when new fabs become operational. Strong demand is also expected to keep the company's 3nm/5nm wafer capacity tight until 2027. The company projects revenue growth of 30% in 2026 and 28% in 2027, exceeding previous annual expectations of 22%. Despite increased capital expenditures and overseas expansion, the gross margin is still expected to exceed 60% during the 2026-2028 period. Stable productivity improvements and the limited dilution effect from overseas fabs will drive this growth. The company further revised its related forecast data, raising its CoWoS shipment expectations for 2026 and 2027 to 1.185 million and 2.195 million wafers, respectively, while also increasing its CoWoS capacity expectations to 1.275 million and 2.31 million wafers accordingly. This upward revision in forecasts fully reflects the stronger market demand associated with the AI sector. According to the latest data, Taiwan Semiconductor's December revenue was NT$335 billion, a 20.4% year-on-year increase but a 2.5% decrease from November 2025. The company's calculated fourth-quarter revenue, based on monthly data, totaled NT$10,460.8 billion, significantly higher than the NT$8,684.6 billion from the same period last year and also exceeding the NT$10,359 billion forecast by 20 analysts polled by London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). Boosted by strong demand for Nvidia's AI chips and the iPhone 17, the company's full-year revenue surged by 31.6%, effectively alleviating market concerns about an AI infrastructure "bubble." Taiwan Semiconductor is scheduled to announce its full quarterly financial report on January 15th, along with its capital expenditure forecast for 2026.

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