The agreement between the United States and Iran to resume navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to lower oil prices, alleviating cost pressures in global transportation, manufacturing, food, and civilian fuel sectors.

However, the benefits of the agreement are unevenly distributed, and the effects will take time to materialize. Congestion issues in the strait cannot be immediately resolved, with shipping companies stating that they will only confidently resume regular operations once the situation remains stable over the long term.

A U.S. official stated on Sunday that both sides have reached a preliminary consensus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Former President Trump noted that finalizing a formal agreement will require time, as both parties must carefully negotiate the terms.

In overnight trading, Brent crude futures fell by 5.2%, settling at $94.99 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for the nearest month dropped 5.7%, closing at $91.08 per barrel. Most stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region also rose.

Crew members revealed on Sunday that, anticipating the navigation agreement, some vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf have begun moving toward the strait. This critical oil transport route handles approximately one-fifth of global crude shipments.

The reopening of the strait is expected to ease inflationary pressures, thereby boosting consumer spending and increasing corporate profits. It also provides central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, with room to maintain interest rates or even consider rate cuts.

A commodities economist at Capital Economics noted that damage to related facilities, halted crude production, and multiple obstacles to shipping in the strait make it difficult for energy supply to quickly return to pre-conflict levels.

He stated, "Multiple factors will keep oil prices elevated for some time. Only when the supply-demand dynamics in the crude market improve substantially will prices steadily decline, a scenario unlikely to materialize until 2027."

Additionally, due to inventory shortages and damaged production facilities, refined fuel prices are expected to fall more slowly than crude oil prices. Following the disruption of Middle Eastern crude supply, countries urgently released strategic reserves, leading to the largest decline in global crude inventories since the conflict began. Data from the Paris-based International Energy Agency shows that global crude inventories fell sharply by 250 million barrels in March and April. While the agreement may halt further inventory depletion, global reserves still need to be replenished.

A senior visiting fellow at the Center for a New American Security stated that the U.S.-Iran framework agreement reduces the risk of escalation, increases the likelihood of conflict resolution, and creates conditions for repairing, adjusting, and restarting critical supply chains.

She also pointed out that the final outcome depends on whether the agreement is merely a temporary extension of the ceasefire or the beginning of a long-term peace deal, emphasizing the importance of its terms.

The framework agreement finalized over the weekend includes maintaining the current ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz simultaneously, and initiating consultations on Iran's nuclear program.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that if strait navigation gradually resumes in June, the average price for international benchmark Brent crude will reach $89 per barrel by the end of this year, with an average of $79 per barrel in 2027. Oil prices started the year at around $60 per barrel.

The conflict has disrupted over one billion barrels of crude supply. Compared to oil prices, the normalization of shipping, insurance, and freight costs will be slower. Shipping companies and insurers require confirmation that the strait is completely safe, mines are cleared, attacks cease, and new navigation management regulations are in place before resuming regular operations in the Gulf.

An executive at the UAE National Oil Company recently admitted that even if the conflict ends immediately, crude shipments through the strait would take at least four months to recover to 80% of pre-conflict levels, with full navigation restoration unlikely until the first or second quarter of next year.

The conflict has also incurred significant facility repair costs. According to estimates, the cost of repairing and rebuilding energy-related facilities in the Middle East could reach up to $58 billion.