Goldman Sachs Group has released a latest research report indicating that Brent crude futures prices will fall below the $50 per barrel threshold by the end of 2026, driven by an intensifying supply-demand imbalance in the global oil market.

In a client report released on Tuesday, the U.S. investment bank analyzed that between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the fourth quarter of 2026, the global oil market will experience an average daily surplus of 1.8 million barrels. This scale of oversupply will lead to an increase of nearly 800 million barrels in global oil inventories during this period.

The report particularly emphasized that inventory increases in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries will account for one-third of the global total, reaching approximately 270 million barrels. Goldman Sachs believes that the dual pressure of inventory accumulation and declining oil demand in OECD countries will drive the fair value of Brent crude to continue falling from the current level of around $75.

While oil prices may still fluctuate around forward contract prices for the remainder of 2025, as inventory pressure significantly intensifies in 2026, Brent crude prices will fall below current futures market expectations. However, the report also noted that if China's crude oil inventory growth accelerates from the average of 400,000 barrels per day in the first eight months of this year to 800,000 barrels per day, the 2026 Brent crude average price could rise by $6 from the baseline forecast to $62.

As of press time, international oil prices continue their weak oscillation pattern, with Brent crude futures main contracts trading at $67 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures at $63 per barrel, both showing significant declines from their early-year highs.

Market analysts believe that weak demand triggered by slowing global economic growth, combined with continued production increases from non-OPEC oil-producing countries, is intensifying market concerns about crude oil oversupply.