United Airlines Reports Best First Quarter in Five Years, Expects "Resilient" 2025

Dow Jones
04-16

United Airlines Holdings beat profit expectations, calling it its best first-quarter financial results in five years despite a challenging macroeconomic environment.

United said it “expects resilient earnings” in its second quarter and full-year 2025. United said advance bookings over the past two weeks have been stable, with premium cabin bookings up 17%, and international bookings up 5% year-over-year.

But, echoing Delta Air Lines’ announcements about reducing flights and capacity in response to the current demand environment, United said it is removing 4 percentage points of scheduled domestic capacity starting in the third quarter, and reducing “off-peak flying on lower demand days,” which it expects to continue through the fourth quarter of 2025. United previously announced that it will retire 21 aircraft earlier than previously planned.

The Chicago-based legacy carrier reported adjusted first-quarter earnings of 91 cents a share, on record revenue of $13.2 billion, up 5.4% from the year-ago quarter.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet anticipated adjusted first-quarter earnings of 74 cents a share on revenue of $13.2 billion, up from an adjusted loss of 15 cents a share on revenue of $12.5 billion a year ago.

The carrier estimated second quarter earnings of $3.25 to $4.25 a share and gave two scenarios for full-year results, based on whether the economy remains stable or turns into a recession.

In the stable outlook, it sees full year 2025 earnings of $11.50 to $13.50 a share. In the recession scenario, it sees full year earnings of $7 to $9 a share. A recession would lower its model for operating revenue in the second quarter through the fourth quarter, it said. It would also further cut capacity in that scenario.

United Airlines stock was up 6% in late trading, after closing up 2% to $67.00 on Tuesday. Shares are down 31% so far this year, but up 61% over the past 12 months.

United said it delivered its best first-quarter operational performance since 2021, and that total revenue per available seat mile rose 0.5% from a year ago.

Premium cabin revenue rose 9.2%, business revenue grew 7.4%, and basic economy revenue increased 7.6% from the year-ago quarter. International travel was also strong, with Atlantic revenue per seat-mile up 4.7% and Pacific revenue per seat-mile up 8.5% from last year. Cargo revenue increased 9.7%, and loyalty revenue rose 9.4% from last year.

“Our strategy coming out of the COVID pandemic was simple: Build the best airline in the world to attract brand-loyal customers,” United CEO Scott Kirby said in a statement. He said the airline’s United Next strategy is on track and will allow United to thrive in any demand environment, with industry-leading margins in the good times, and the ability to expand its lead in challenging economic times.

“Our ability to win brand-loyal customers and the resiliency of our business is a competitive advantage, and we are accelerating our investments in our product, service, technology and experience to further expand that lead.”

Shares of United Airlines have been battered by recession fears as of late, but things weren’t always this way. In fact, United Airlines started off 2025 as one of the S&P 500’s highest-flying stocks.

United said it flew the largest schedule by available seat miles in its history during its first quarter, carrying a record average of more than 450,000 passengers per day, including nearly 90,000 international passengers. It also notched its best on-time arrival and departure rate for a first quarter since 2021, and cut its seat cancellation rate in half compared with the first quarter of 2024.

By the end of February, the airline was one of the top performers in the index, behind data-analytics and artificial-intelligence heavyweight Palantir Technologies, and nuclear energy firm Vistra. However, airline stocks sold off sharply amid mounting fears that President Donald Trump’s tariffs could lead to a full-blown recession.

United Airlines noted these concerns in a Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission in February, stating that “any deterioration in global trade relations, such as increased tariffs or other trade barriers, could result in a decrease in the demand for international air travel.”

The selloff began in earnest when peer Delta Air Lines slashed guidance at the start of March, cautioning investors that consumer and corporate confidence had been dented due to an unpredictable macro environment.

“With broad economic uncertainty around global trade, growth has largely stalled,” Delta CEO Ed Bastian said last week. To protect margins and cash flow, Delta is “reducing planned capacity growth in the second half of the year to flat over last year,” and managing other costs, but Bastian said the carrier remains positioned to deliver “solid profitability and free cash flow for the year.”

Days later, a consumer-sentiment survey from the University of Michigan posted a reading of 57.9 in March, marking a 10.5% drop from the prior month, and a 27.1% decrease from a year ago. Many respondents cited a “high level of uncertainty around policy and other economic factors,” the university said.

In the instance that a decline in consumer spending creates a downward cycle into a recession, airlines such as United Airlines will be exposed. The stocks are cyclical, as travel is generally considered a discretionary expense.

United last month announced it was raising its rewards credit card and annual lounge membership fees, but the airline and JPMorgan Chase said new benefits, including rideshare credits, car rental and hotel awards, would increase the value of their co-branded credit cards.

United executives will discuss first-quarter financial results at a conference call at 10:30 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday.

Alaska Air Group reports first-quarter earnings on April 23, and American Airlines and Southwest Airlines both report earnings on April 24.

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