Title

Earning Preview: ONEOK Inc revenue is expected to increase by 38.05%, and institutional views are neutral

Abstract

ONEOK Inc will release quarterly results on February 23, 2026 Post Market, with investors watching revenue growth, margin stability, and earnings trajectory as early forecasts point to stronger top-line momentum and a largely neutral institutional stance heading into the print.

Market Forecast

Based on current-quarter projections, ONEOK Inc is expected to deliver revenue of 9.29 billion, implying year-over-year growth of 38.05%, alongside an estimated adjusted EPS of $1.53, up 2.39% year over year; EBIT is forecast at 1.63 billion, up 12.54% year over year, while the company has not provided explicit forecasts for gross or net margins. The outlook implies strong top-line expansion relative to last year’s comparable period, with mid-single-digit earnings growth anticipated as operating profit scales with volume and mix; margin guidance is not indicated in the forecast data and should be a key area for investor focus. The company’s primary revenue driver remains liquid commodities sales, which accounted for 6.67 billion last quarter and continue to anchor consolidated performance and near-term earnings sensitivity. The most promising lever into the projected topline expansion is this liquids-centered revenue base, given its scale at 6.67 billion in the prior quarter and its potential to translate a 38.05% year-over-year uplift in consolidated revenue into operating profit if commercial spreads and throughput remain supportive.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, ONEOK Inc reported revenue of 8.63 billion, a gross profit margin of 30.95%, GAAP net income attributable to the parent company of 939.00 million, a net profit margin of 10.88%, and adjusted EPS of $1.49, which represented a 26.27% year-over-year increase; revenue rose 71.89% year over year. Results modestly exceeded expectations, with revenue coming in above projections and adjusted EPS exceeding estimates by $0.04, while EBIT of 1.56 billion tracked near consensus. The main business delivered most of the upside: liquid commodities sales contributed 6.67 billion, or roughly three-quarters of total revenue, while transportation and storage generated 775.00 million, residual natural gas sales were 751.00 million, and exchange services and natural gas gathering and processing contributed 406.00 million, highlighting the breadth of fee-based and commodity-linked revenue streams that supported the quarter.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business trajectory: liquids-led revenue and earnings conversion

The core revenue engine is liquid commodities sales, which delivered 6.67 billion in the last reported quarter, representing approximately 77% of consolidated revenue. With the company’s forecast implying a 38.05% year-over-year increase in consolidated revenue to 9.29 billion, incremental throughput and commercial spreads in the liquids chain are poised to determine how much of that top-line expansion translates into EBIT and EPS. The bridge between revenue growth and earnings conversion will be defined by operating leverage in marketing and logistics, cost discipline across handling and processing, and the mix between fee-based volumes and commodity-sensitive components. Margin cadence is central to this setup. Last quarter’s gross margin of 30.95% and net margin of 10.88% demonstrate solid profitability against a high-revenue base; sustaining or improving these levels amid an expected revenue increase would support the $1.53 EPS estimate and the 12.54% year-over-year rise in EBIT to 1.63 billion. The ability to keep unit costs stable while capturing favorable differentials can materially influence consolidated margin, especially when large revenue pools in liquids magnify even small per-unit changes. Given the top-line forecast, investors will be attentive to whether margin mix remains similar to the last quarter or skews toward lower- or higher-margin substreams. Execution on contracting and balancing across the liquids value chain will be another determinant. Efficient allocation of capacity, disciplined handling of counterparty positions, and optimization of product blends can enable better-than-expected conversion of revenue into operating income. Conversely, if mix shifts toward lower-margin throughput or if spread capture compresses relative to the prior quarter, EBIT growth could trail revenue growth, putting more pressure on cost control and ancillary income to meet the EPS estimate.

Most promising business for incremental upside: transportation and storage defensiveness

Transportation and storage contributed 775.00 million last quarter and stands out as a near-term ballast for earnings consistency. While smaller than liquids marketing in absolute dollars, this activity tends to be more insulated from rapid pricing swings, providing steadier margin contribution and supporting cash flows through the cycle. In a quarter where consolidated revenue is projected higher by 38.05% year over year, a stable, fee-oriented backbone can improve the probability that EBIT achieves the 1.63 billion forecast even if commodity-linked spreads fluctuate. The pathway for incremental upside here is operational reliability and throughput optimization. High utilization, low downtime, and cost controls can sustain margin, while judicious commercial management of contracts can limit earnings volatility. Strategic storage positioning and seasonal balancing can also improve earnings quality if the company navigates inventory and scheduling efficiently. The key advantage in this line is predictability: if liquids-led revenue runs hotter than expected, transportation and storage can translate that flow into stable earnings; if liquids spreads soften, transportation and storage can cushion consolidated margins. Investors will gauge how this segment complements the larger liquids platform in the current quarter. A steady base from transportation and storage could provide the incremental EBIT cushion to align consolidated results with the 12.54% year-over-year EBIT growth expectation, particularly if other revenue streams oscillate. The stability and repeatability of this income can also help maintain confidence in the $1.53 EPS trajectory, even under modest margin pressure elsewhere.

Primary stock-price drivers this quarter: EPS delivery, margin signals, and capital allocation

The first-order stock catalyst is EPS delivery versus the $1.53 estimate and any updated commentary on forward earnings cadence. Because consolidated revenue growth is projected to outpace EBIT and EPS expansion, the market will parse whether this reflects prudent conservatism on margin assumptions or an embedded expectation of mix normalization. A clean beat on EPS, even by a modest amount, would validate the company’s cost structure, revenue-to-earnings conversion, and commercial positioning, while a miss could prompt investors to recalibrate near-term margin assumptions. Margin signals are likely to be the second decisive factor. With last quarter’s gross margin at 30.95% and net margin at 10.88%, investors will be particularly sensitive to any signs of compression that would detach EBIT from the 12.54% year-over-year growth profile. Commentary around unit costs, spread capture, and the balance between fee-based and commodity-linked activities will inform how durable current margins are through the remainder of the year. Even small changes in margins can have a measurable impact on EPS given the scale of the liquids revenue base. Capital allocation and guidance discipline will also matter. While the forecast data do not include margin guidance, management’s qualitative outlook on operating trends, maintenance and growth capital, and the cadence of shareholder returns can influence the valuation multiple and reaction to this quarter’s results. Clear articulation of priorities—whether emphasizing balance-sheet prudence, incremental capacity investments with high visibility on returns, or steady distribution growth—can set expectations for the next few quarters and potentially reduce volatility around near-term earnings prints.

Analyst Opinions

The majority view is neutral heading into February 23, 2026, with several institutions maintaining Hold or Neutral ratings versus a smaller number of positive calls. RBC Capital reiterated a Hold rating with a price target of $79.00 in early February 2026, reflecting a wait-and-see approach grounded in balanced risk-reward ahead of the quarter. Barclays reaffirmed its Hold stance in late January 2026 with a $76.00 price target, underscoring a tempered outlook that favors evidence of sustained margin resilience and consistent earnings conversion before turning more constructive. JPMorgan shifted to Neutral in January 2026 with a revised price target of $83.00, indicating that while top-line momentum is evident, investors may require confirmation that EBIT and EPS can scale alongside revenue without compressing profitability metrics. By contrast, Morgan Stanley maintained an Overweight rating with a price target of $104.00, but this was outnumbered by Neutral and Hold views in the current period. The neutral camp’s rationale centers on the gap between revenue growth and earnings growth embedded in the forecast. With revenue projected to rise 38.05% year over year to 9.29 billion while EPS is expected to grow 2.39% year over year to $1.53 and EBIT by 12.54%, neutral-rated analysts emphasize the need to see stable gross and net margins near last quarter’s 30.95% and 10.88% to validate the earnings trajectory. They also highlight that last quarter’s results beat expectations on both revenue and adjusted EPS—revenue at 8.63 billion and EPS at $1.49, up 71.89% and 26.27% year over year, respectively—setting a higher base from which the company must now sustain performance. The prevailing view is that confirmation of margin durability and a clear path to convert robust liquids revenue into proportional operating profit would be sufficient to shift sentiment more positive; absent that, a neutral stance remains appropriate into the print. From a tactical perspective, neutral-rated institutions are looking for three markers in this report. First, whether gross and net margins can remain close to last quarter’s levels despite a larger revenue denominator, as this would signal effective spread capture and cost discipline. Second, whether EBIT growth of 12.54% year over year is achievable without one-off tailwinds, which would reinforce the quality of earnings. Third, whether management’s commentary frames a stable cadence for adjusted EPS beyond the current quarter, supporting visibility for the next two to three quarters. If these conditions are met, neutral analysts acknowledge scope for upward revisions to price targets or outlooks; if not, they expect shares to trade largely in line with the broader earnings trend implied by the forecast mix of strong revenue and modestly growing earnings.