Industrial Securities released a research report stating that, in the short term, with the gradual recovery of the catering sector combined with expectations of mild inflation, beer consumption is expected to stabilize and improve, with structural optimization and resilience continuing. In the medium to long term, the core consumer demographic is projected to remain supported over the next five years, and beer industry consumption volume is expected to remain stable. Drawing on overseas experience, the report suggests that premiumization will remain the key long-term trend and a decisive factor in competition. Additionally, exploration into secondary growth avenues could unlock further long-term potential. The report recommends focusing on leading companies with strong value attributes and high-quality growth targets. Key views from Industrial Securities are as follows:

Beer companies are actively promoting festival marketing, with relatively strong preparations for the Spring Festival in offline markets. For the 2026 Spring Festival, major beer companies launched a series of marketing initiatives centered around zodiac culture, closely targeting young consumers' preferences and incorporating digital strategies to capture holiday consumption occasions and enhance brand competitiveness. Specific examples include: 1) Budweiser: Released limited-edition "Galloping Horse" cans and blind boxes featuring Jackson Wang, using the slogan "A Promising Year of the Horse" and integrating six New Year wishes into the design to resonate emotionally with young consumers. 2) Tsingtao Brewery: Introduced a product series including the "Good Luck" Year of the Horse edition, New Year packaging, cultural creation "Steed Bringing Blessings," and overseas Year of the Horse products, available in various sizes like 330ml and 500ml to suit multiple scenarios. The company also used QR codes linked to zodiac elements and partnered with offline supermarkets and convenience stores for scan-to-win promotions and display incentives to boost product visibility. 3) Carlsberg (Chongqing Brewery): Launched the "Auspicious Year" limited Spring Festival packaging series and collaborated with a Mandarin rapper to create a New Year theme song, conveying holiday greetings in a way that aligns with young consumers' aesthetic preferences. 4) Yanjing Beer: Transformed its IP digital character "Xiao 8" into "Xiao Fa," under the theme "Drink Yanjing U8 for Good Luck," and partnered with Guan Xiaotong to launch Spring Festival greetings, fan interactions, and surprise gift activities to enhance the holiday marketing atmosphere.

Leading beer companies maintained good inventory management in 2025, laying the foundation for a strong start to the Spring Festival. According to Zhoupu data, preparations in the offline beer market for the Spring Festival were relatively active, with GMV during the statistical period (January 8 to February 7) increasing by 5.7% year-on-year, shifting from decline to growth and performing better than the average in 2025 (March to November). However, overall sales performance has been relatively weak, with a decline in the contribution from on-premise channels.

Since 2024, the beer sector has experienced volatile and weak performance. Besides factors such as base effects and unfavorable weather, this is mainly due to slower-than-expected consumer recovery and periodic policy restrictions, leading to a slower rebound in on-premise channels and relatively weaker sales for major beer companies. Nevertheless, thanks to cost benefits realized between 2024 and 2025, earnings flexibility has continued to materialize, with regional breweries supported by strong sales of key products achieving relative outperformance.

From an industry perspective, alongside the rise of craft beer, beer distribution channels have undergone changes. Since 2020, the contribution of traditional on-premise channels such as restaurants and nightlife venues has continued to decline, while the growth of supermarkets, convenience stores, e-commerce, and instant retail has made off-premise channels the main driver of growth. Taking Tsingtao Brewery as an example, the proportion of its sales from on-premise channels fell from over 60% in 2019 to 41.2% in 2024, while the share from off-premise channels rose from nearly 40% to 58.8% during the same period. Between 2022 and 2024, the on-premise channel share increased by only 0.6 percentage points, indicating a weak recovery in the catering sector.

In the short term, the ongoing recovery in the catering market is expected to bring flexibility in beer volume and pricing. Chenzhi data shows that after continuous adjustments from 2020 to 2024, the restaurant opening rate exceeded the closure rate for the full year of 2025, with the number of catering outlets steadily recovering to 8.4 million by year-end, indicating signs of market revival. Lower-tier markets have become a new engine for catering growth in recent years, and retail catering data shows strengthening recovery momentum for small business catering. According to Zhoupu data, during the 2026 Spring Festival preparation period, GMV in the catering channel shifted from decline to growth, reaching a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, reflecting some recovery in sentiment.

In the medium to long term, China's beer consumption structure has ample room for upgrading. Drawing comparisons with overseas markets, the U.S. experienced two rounds of premiumization, with structural upgrading periods lasting over 20 years, indicating that beer premiumization is a long-cycle trend. In terms of product structure, Euromonitor data shows that in 2024, mid-to-high-end beer accounted for 40% of sales volume in China, compared to 79% in the U.S. and 54% in Japan. The price thresholds for low-to-mid and mid-to-high-end beer in China are 8 yuan/liter and 16 yuan/liter, respectively, representing 59% and 75% of U.S. levels, and 36% and 53% of Japanese levels. Currently, competition in the beer industry's supply side is relatively stable. In an era of存量 competition, leading companies are focusing on premiumization consensus and continuously improving operational capabilities, which is expected to drive long-term structural upgrading in the industry.

Risks include macroeconomic fluctuations affecting consumption, slower-than-expected premiumization progress, and intensified industry competition.