Since October 2024, Meituan's stock price has experienced a downward trend. As of the market close on March 13, 2026, Meituan's share price stood at HK$75.95 per share, with its market capitalization shrinking to just HK$468.9 billion. This represents a loss of nearly HK$2.2 trillion compared to its peak valuation of over HK$2.6 trillion. A company's market capitalization often reflects investor expectations for its future development. Why has Meituan's market value continued to decline? What factors have influenced these market expectations?

The year 2025 proved to be a challenging period for Meituan, with the company projecting a full-year net loss ranging between RMB 23.3 billion and RMB 24.3 billion. In response to JD.com's aggressive entry into the market with a "zero commission + billions in subsidies" strategy, Meituan was forced into a subsidy war involving hundreds of billions of yuan. Despite these efforts, the company failed to maintain its market position. Its market share plummeted from a peak of over 70% to approximately 48%. Alibaba's "Taobao Quick Deals" and JD.com's food delivery service captured 33% and 19% of the market share respectively, fundamentally altering the previous market structure of one dominant player and several smaller competitors.

While its core business faced pressure, Meituan's foray into the AI sector also encountered a significant setback. On March 2, its Lightyear Beyond team launched Tabbit, its first AI-native browser, in an attempt to capture the next-generation intelligent entry point. However, within 24 hours of its launch, an independent developer publicly accused the product of plagiarism, noting that the source code of its built-in translation plugin even contained filenames from the original project. Although the team quickly apologized and removed the feature, the controversy highlighted potential strategic anxieties and technological shortcomings in Meituan's AI development plans.

Has its competitive moat been breached? Meituan's dominant position in the food delivery market was challenged, with its share falling below 50%, leading to losses exceeding RMB 200 billion in 2025. On February 13, 2026, Meituan issued a profit warning, estimating a full-year 2025 net loss of RMB 23.3 billion to RMB 24.3 billion. Notably, its core local commerce division, once a "cash cow," turned from profit to a reported operating loss of RMB 6.8 billion to RMB 7.0 billion. This stark reversal from a profit of RMB 35.8 billion to a loss of over RMB 200 billion underscores the intense competition Meituan faced in the instant retail sector over the past year.

In February 2025, JD.com entered the food delivery market as a new competitor with a strategy of "zero commission + billions in subsidies + rider social security," aggressively targeting the sector's core. This forced established players like Meituan and Alibaba to respond swiftly. They not only elevated "Meituan Flash" and "Taobao Quick Deals" to strategic core positions but also ignited a summer subsidy war involving over a hundred billion yuan, pushing the peak daily order volume for instant retail to a staggering 200 million orders.

Meituan's announcement directly attributed the massive 2025 losses to the food delivery battle. To stabilize its market position, the company significantly increased investments on all fronts: consumer-side marketing to enhance brand influence and price competitiveness; rider incentives and benefits to ensure service quality; and merchant-side resources to support operational efficiency and growth. Despite this substantial spending, Meituan could not maintain its market share. Data indicates that by Q4 2025, its share had fallen to about 48%, while Alibaba's integrated "Taobao Quick Deals" captured 33%, and JD.com's aggressive push secured nearly 19%, successfully reshaping the competitive landscape.

Competition in the instant retail sector is expected to intensify further in 2026. Upon its first anniversary, JD.com announced plans to expand into in-store pickup and group buying services, focusing on its 7Fresh Kitchen concept, with a clear target of achieving over 30% market share in 2026. Data shows that individual 7Fresh Kitchen stores exceeded 500 daily orders three months after opening, and JD.com aims to complete its布局 in all first- and second-tier cities by the end of 2026. This expansion from pure delivery to a "multi-scenario dining ecosystem" signals a shift from flanking maneuvers to a full-frontal assault.

In contrast to JD.com's tactical offense, Alibaba's approach in instant retail demonstrates greater strategic patience, with its core management stating they would "not bear the burden of losses within three years." Alibaba founder Jack Ma internally described "Taobao Quick Deals" as a "milestone battle," indicating the initiative has the highest strategic priority. For 2026, Taobao Quick Deals is adopting a more refined strategy: focusing on higher-value orders (over RMB 30) in food delivery to move beyond a pure subsidy model, and prioritizing vertical categories like pharmaceuticals, alcohol, and fresh produce in instant retail.

The instant retail competition is evolving from a "subsidy war" to a "war of attrition," with no signs of de-escalation in 2026. Having already lost its majority share in 2025, and facing JD.com's 30% target and Alibaba's all-in commitment, it remains uncertain whether the loss-making Meituan can defend its remaining nearly 50% share, suggesting another tough battle lies ahead.

Is AI a crisis or an opportunity? Meituan's first AI browser, Tabbit, faced a plagiarism scandal right out of the gate. Just before the 2026 Spring Festival, Alibaba's Qianwen App launched a massive promotional campaign, processing over 10 million orders in 9 hours and topping the App Store free chart. The app allows users to complete the entire ordering process through conversation, directly challenging Meituan's traditional "open app-search-order" user path, acting like a Trojan horse targeting its core business.

As Q1 2026 draws to a close, the AI race among Chinese tech giants is intensifying. A clear divergence is emerging: while Alibaba and Tencent build comprehensive capabilities around large models, cloud computing, chips, and super apps, Meituan's AI focus appears overly narrow, centered on specific business scenarios, potentially causing it to fall behind in this critical strategic shift.

On March 2, Meituan's Lightyear Beyond team launched the Tabbit AI browser for public testing, emphasizing immersive translation and intelligent agent features. However, within 24 hours, independent developer "Mengxi Slept" publicly accused it of plagiarism, citing high similarity in the translation plugin and even finding original project filenames like "read-frog" in the code. The developer's public statement quickly ignited controversy within the tech community.

The Tabbit team stated that while their code forking occurred before a specific open-source license was added, they fully respect the original author's rights. They announced the removal of the translation feature from the new version, open-sourced the project for community review, and committed to obtaining formal licensing authorization before potentially reinstating the functionality.