On Wednesday, Ukrainian drones struck a major oil refinery near Nizhny Novgorod in Russia, triggering a massive fire. In the Tambov region of central Russia, a large warehouse belonging to e-commerce giant Wildberries also suffered a severe blaze. These two incidents represent the latest examples of the aerial conflict between Russia and Ukraine entering a new phase. As both sides continue to expand their aerial arsenals, this all-out contest, hampered by insufficient air defense capabilities, is causing increasingly widespread destruction and rising civilian casualties.

Although both sides rely on drones and missiles for their long-range strikes, their strategic logic is fundamentally different. Kyiv aims to paralyze the industrial base that sustains Russia's economy, while Moscow is betting on breaking the will of the Ukrainian civilian population to resist.

Russia's Attrition Strategy and the Civilian Crisis

Since ground offensives stalled in the autumn of 2022, Moscow has systematically targeted Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Just last week, Russian missiles and drones heavily bombarded a children's hospital, schools, apartment buildings, and warehouses around Kyiv. That round of strikes killed at least 16 people. Due to a global shortage of Patriot interceptor missiles, which has persisted since the U.S.-led coalition's operations in Iraq, Ukraine failed to shoot down any Russian ballistic missiles during that attack.

This summer, Kyiv, lacking adequate air defense cover, has been shrouded in pessimism. Reports indicate that Russian long-range strikes have killed hundreds of Ukrainian civilians, with the Iskander-M ballistic missile being the primary weapon of mass casualty. Amidst ongoing damage to infrastructure, many Kyiv residents fear that the city's water and sewage systems could be the next targets. Some residents are even beginning to discuss whether they might need to temporarily relocate to rural areas if conditions in the capital deteriorate this winter.

In response to Ukraine's strikes on its oil industry, Russian President Vladimir Putin last week issued an explicit threat to expand the range of targets inside Ukraine. In a key statement, Putin emphasized Moscow's hardline stance. "The Kyiv regime is trying to destroy our economy. What has it done? It has opened this Pandora's box itself." Few observers believe Russia can achieve ultimate victory simply by creating a humanitarian crisis.

Ukraine's Asymmetric Counterattacks and Defense Industry Expansion

Russia's sustained aerial campaigns have failed to halt the rapid expansion of Ukraine's defense technology sector. To cope with the ongoing air defense pressure, Ukraine is producing millions of drones annually through dispersed and concealed facilities. With Western allies facing a severe shortage of Patriot interceptor missiles, Ukraine is actively exploring new ways to disrupt Russian missile salvos.

Ukrainian drones have been continuously destroying air defense systems in Russia's southern border regions. This strategy aims to pave the way for large-scale hunting of Russian missile launchers, including the Iskander-M. Rob Lee, a Kyiv-based military analyst and senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia, noted that if the airspace is filled with drones, it could force missile launchers to hide or retreat. Lee further analyzed that while this is not a foolproof solution, it would undoubtedly increase the difficulty of Russian operations. He also warned that ballistic missiles are not the only threat on the battlefield.

Russia is expanding its arsenal of jet-propelled drones, such as the Geran-5, which is based on an Iranian design, and low-cost "Banderol" cruise missiles. These weapons are cheap and easy to mass-produce, and could further deplete Ukraine's already stretched air defense systems. Over the past year, Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities have seen a significant leap. The scope of its deep strikes has expanded substantially from refineries and missile factories to Black Sea shipping and the warehouse networks of major e-commerce companies like Wildberries and Ozon.

While these strikes have also caused civilian casualties, the scale is smaller than that of Russia's. Kyiv's public goals are clear: to disrupt military supply chains and cut off the export revenue that funds Moscow's military machine. At the same time, Ukraine aims to make the conflict tangible for the Russian public by triggering widespread economic disruption.

A Strategic Stalemate and Decisive Variables

Despite the intensifying air campaigns, Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst, questions the theory that inflicting pain can force a surrender. He points out that sustained air strikes often make societies more resilient rather than causing them to collapse. Recent data also confirms that the Ukrainian public is increasingly opposed to making territorial concessions to Moscow.

Hanna Notte, a Russia expert at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in California, notes that the likelihood of Putin accepting a ceasefire is minimal. Putin is betting that he can suppress domestic dissent and believes the Russian economy can endure more pain than Ukraine's. Notte stated that the impact of long-range strikes on Russian society and its economy would have to be significantly more severe to alter Putin's calculations.

While some Russian analysts have recently suggested that Moscow cannot achieve its military objectives, their concerns focus more on the stalled front-line situation than the impact of long-range strikes. Gady concludes that the decisive variable in this conflict remains military manpower. Observers are closely watching whether Putin will initiate a large-scale mobilization in the coming months to reinforce ground operations. With the ground war at a stalemate, long-range strikes have become the only area where both sides can take action, making this confrontation increasingly destructive but lacking a decisive outcome.