At the 25th China Private Equity Annual Conference held in Shenzhen from December 2-5, Chen Wei, Chairman and Founding Partner of Oriental Fortune Capital, delivered a keynote speech titled "Investment Trends: Seizing the Era."
Chen Wei noted that despite recent market consolidation around 3,800 points, unprecedented policy support is driving China's stock market upward. "Since September 24, it’s evident that multiple government bodies are actively fostering market growth and direct financing," he said.
He emphasized significant growth potential for China’s stock market, citing Warren Buffett’s index: while U.S. equities represent 230% of GDP, China’s market cap stands at just 87%. "A logical recovery to 150% of GDP—a reasonable target amid technological advancement—would mean the 4,000-point level might only be the beginning. We may never see 3,000 points again," Chen predicted.
**Key Projections:** 1. **GDP Growth**: China’s GDP is expected to surpass the U.S. by 2037, expanding by $15 trillion to reach $18 trillion. 2. **Market Expansion**: China’s stock market, currently at ~110 trillion yuan, could add at least 100 trillion yuan in market cap—driven by new sectors like AI—creating wealth opportunities. 3. **Tech Giants**: The era of Chinese tech giants is dawning. While Tencent ($770B) remains China’s largest firm, the U.S. boasts ten $1T+ companies. Since the STAR Market’s launch, China’s $100B+ tech firms have grown by 33%.
**AI’s Potential & Market Cycles** Addressing AI’s perceived bubble, Chen compared current valuations (28x P/E for U.S. "Magnificent Seven") to the dot-com era’s 60x, concluding AI remains undervalued. He highlighted infrastructure gaps: global AI investments ($1T by 2025) lag behind the $11.5T spent on internet infrastructure (1995–2023), which fueled $30T in market cap.
"AI’s commercialization is nascent," Chen said, drawing parallels to early internet phases where infrastructure firms (e.g., Nvidia) profit first, followed by applications (e.g., ByteDance’s revenue surge from 6B to 1T yuan).
**Historical Precedents** Technological revolutions—from steam engines to AI—have consistently multiplied productivity and wealth. Chen cited Apple’s growth from $80B to $4T post-iPhone, suggesting AI could mirror or exceed this trajectory as models evolve (e.g., GPT-30). "AI combines industrial, digital, and cultural revolutions," he said, endorsing its role in resolving challenges like U.S. debt via automation.
**China’s Policy & Innovation Edge** Chen underscored China’s unique innovation ecosystem, backed by policies like the "15th Five-Year Plan" prioritizing quantum tech, biomanufacturing, and 6G. With M2 twice the U.S.’s but direct financing at one-eighth, equities and private markets must absorb capital as real estate’s dominance wanes.
"Invest in China and innovation relentlessly," Chen urged. "This is an era of miracles, and China is its epicenter."