Lithium battery concept stocks extended their declines, with CATL (03750) falling 4.93% to HK$444, CALB (03931) dropping 4.13% to HK$15.07, Ganfeng Lithium Group Co.,Ltd. (01772) declining 3.08% to HK$25.78, and LOPAL TECH (02465) slipping 3.07% to HK$7.43.

On the news front, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration jointly issued an announcement that starting from April 1, 2027, the value-added tax export rebate rate for new energy vehicles will be reduced from 13% to 9%.

Huatai Securities stated that based on a static calculation using export amounts, the cost per passenger vehicle would increase by approximately 5,000 yuan. Analysts pointed out that the export tax rebate reduction weakens the demand outlook for complete vehicle exports and may further transmit to the upstream lithium mining and battery materials segments.

Donghai Futures released a lithium carbonate October investment strategy report, noting that lithium battery production has increased month-over-month for several months, but the growth rate may decline after entering the peak season.

Regarding October lithium battery production scheduling, TD Alliance Think Tank estimates a month-over-month increase of 3.9% to 345GWh, while SMM estimates a month-over-month increase of 6% to 320.4GWh. Downstream production scheduling growth is slowing, and the decline in ternary production scheduling and actual realized output reflects that power demand is not strong during the peak season.