According to Zhitong Finance APP, Guosen Securities Co.,Ltd. (002736) released a research report stating that the average Brent futures price in August 2026 was US$88.3 per barrel, up US$4.5 per barrel month-on-month, and the average WTI futures price was US$82.5 per barrel, up US$3.9 per barrel month-on-month. Since September, the Middle East conflict has reignited, international oil prices rose first and then fell, and Brent futures prices once rose to US$110 per barrel. On the supply side, Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz may affect about 10 million barrels per day of supply, and the stagnation of exports through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait threatens about 4 million barrels per day of crude oil supply in the short term. On the inventory side, both U.S. crude oil inventories and strategic petroleum reserves have fallen to their lowest levels since 1983. The central range for Brent and WTI oil prices in 2026 is expected to be US$80-100 per barrel. The upstream oil and gas exploration sector is expected to maintain relatively high prosperity, and the profitability of refining and chemical enterprises with overseas production capacity and export qualifications is expected to improve.

Main views of Guosen Securities are as follows:

Oil price review

The average Brent futures price in August 2026 was US$88.3 per barrel, up US$4.5 per barrel month-on-month, closing at US$89.3 per barrel. The average Brent spot price was US$91.7 per barrel, up US$8.5 per barrel month-on-month, closing at US$89.8 per barrel. The average WTI futures price was US$82.5 per barrel, up US$3.9 per barrel month-on-month, closing at US$83.4 per barrel. In early August, the United States and Iran released signals of easing, progress was made in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S. oil prices fell sharply to around US$75. On August 17, the U.S.-Iran negotiation window expired, the United States introduced new sanctions against Iran, strengthened restrictions on Iran's crude oil exports, and traffic through the strait remained low, causing oil prices to continue rising. In late August, the market digested the impact of the new sanctions, while rumors emerged that the United States and Iran were about to reach a ceasefire and that Iran and Afghanistan had reached a framework understanding on passage through the strait, causing oil prices to fall back from highs. At the end of August, expectations that the United States would restore the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding cooled, and oil prices rebounded again. Since September, the Middle East conflict has reignited, and international oil prices rose first and then fell. On September 8, Yemen's Houthi armed forces attacked a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline was preventively shut down after a drone attack, greatly increasing the risk of Middle East supply disruptions. Brent crude oil futures prices once rose to US$110 per barrel. As Saudi Arabia announced the restart of the East-West oil pipeline, oil prices slightly fell back to around US$100 per barrel.

Oil price view judgment

Supply side: In July, the United States canceled the exemption for Iran's oil sales, after which Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, potentially affecting about 10 million barrels per day of supply. On July 20, the Houthi armed forces announced a "maritime embargo" on Saudi Arabia, and a drone attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline limited transport capacity. Crude oil exports through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait stalled, threatening about 4 million barrels per day of crude oil supply in the short term. In the future, continued attention must be paid to how passage through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait affects supply.

Demand side: Major international energy institutions expect crude oil demand changes in 2026 to be (-2.5) to 380,000 barrels per day, and expect crude oil demand growth in 2027 to be 2.36-2.6 million barrels per day. According to the latest monthly reports from OPEC, IEA, and EIA, crude oil demand in 2026 is expected to be +380,000, -2.5 million, and -1.68 million barrels per day versus 2025, respectively. Crude oil demand in 2027 is expected to increase by 2.36 million, 2.6 million, and 2.38 million barrels per day versus 2026, respectively.

Inventory side: EIA forecasts global crude oil destocking of about 3 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and expects continued destocking of 1.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. As of the end of August, U.S. crude oil inventories had fallen to 711 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserves had fallen to 287 million barrels, both hitting their lowest levels since 1983. OECD inventories are expected to fall to 2.3 billion barrels by the end of 2026, the lowest since 2003. Affected by the U.S.-Israel-Iran war, the central range for Brent and WTI oil prices in 2026 is expected to be US$80-100 per barrel. The upstream oil and gas exploration sector is expected to maintain relatively high prosperity, and the profitability of refining and chemical enterprises with overseas production capacity and export qualifications is expected to improve.

Risk warning: Fluctuations in raw material prices; fluctuations in product prices; downstream demand falling short of expectations, etc.