Aluminum stocks on the Hong Kong market extended their gains. At the time of writing, Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited (CHALCO) (02600.HK) rose 4.63% to HK$10.85, CHINAHONGQIAO (01378.HK) advanced 2.41% to HK$31.48, and CHUANGXIN IND (02788.HK) increased 1.85% to HK$20.94.

The catalyst for the rally is the ongoing restructuring of the global aluminum industry, driven by disruptions to the Middle Eastern supply system. Recent Chinese customs data reveals a significant uptick in exports. In April alone, China's aluminum exports surged by 15% year-over-year to 598,000 metric tons. Cumulative exports for the year have reached 2.05 million tons, marking an 8.9% increase compared to the same period last year. Some analysts anticipate that China's aluminum exports could climb further in May and June as overseas clients continue procuring Chinese semi-finished products.

In a notable forecast, Citigroup expects aluminum inventories to drop to record lows over the next 6 to 12 months. The bank projects a supply deficit of nearly 2.7 million tons for the aluminum market this year, even under a scenario of weak demand. If demand does not fall enough to offset the tight supply, aluminum prices could reach $4,000 per ton within the next three months. Under an optimistic outlook, Citigroup sees the average aluminum price potentially rising to $5,350 per ton by 2027.