Some of Wall Street's most bullish Bitcoin institutions are revising their short-term price targets downward, though their long-term optimism remains intact.
Standard Chartered, a long-time crypto advocate, has halved its Bitcoin price projection amid collapsing corporate treasury demand and sluggish ETF inflows. The bank now expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by end-2026, down from its previous $300,000 forecast, while pushing back its $500,000 long-term target from 2028 to 2030.
Analysts at Bernstein similarly predict Bitcoin will hit $150,000 by end-2025 and approach $200,000 by end-2027. Although recent declines forced them to retract their $200,000 peak forecast for this year, they maintain that Bitcoin has broken its traditional four-year cycle pattern and entered a more sustainable growth trajectory.
These downward revisions mark a significant shift in tone despite continued bullishness. Crypto enthusiasts are adjusting to a harsher market reality—Bitcoin has retreated nearly 30% from its October peak above $126,000 as institutional buying reverses. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $60 million in net outflows on Monday.
On Tuesday, Bitcoin rebounded to a three-week high, climbing 3.5% to surpass $94,400.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's Global Head of Digital Assets Research, noted that corporate treasuries previously driving Bitcoin adoption—the so-called Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT)—no longer have valuation support or motivation to continue buying.
"We believe DAT-driven Bitcoin buying has run its course, while ETF inflows will resume intermittently," he wrote. "We anticipate consolidation rather than outright liquidation."
With this demand pillar gone, ETF flows now serve as the sole anchor—but appear to be losing momentum. BlackRock's IBIT saw $2.3 billion in outflows last month, marking its second monthly net outflow this year and the largest to date. Though representing just 3% of total assets, the withdrawal raises concerns that some long-term holders might be wavering, given Bitcoin's history of strong rebounds after major corrections.
Despite Bitcoin losing nearly a third of its value, Bernstein analysts including Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia note that net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs constitute less than 5% of total assets. They argue Bitcoin is "currently in an extended bull cycle where steadier institutional buying offsets any retail panic selling."
Bernstein's November analysis shows retail investors hold about 75% of spot Bitcoin ETF assets, while institutional ownership has grown from 20% at end-2024 to 28%. Long-term, these analysts project Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2033.