The USDA is scheduled to release its October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report at 0:00 Beijing time on Saturday, October 10.

In this report, the United States Department of Agriculture will incorporate data from the quarterly stocks report published at the end of September to make key adjustments to the ending stocks for U.S. soybeans and corn for the 2026/27 marketing year. At the same time, as the autumn harvest progresses on a large scale, the agency will revise its yield and total production estimates based on the latest field harvest data and satellite remote sensing models.

According to EquipeA.com.br, analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal believe the USDA should lower its 2026/27 U.S. corn production estimate on Friday (the 9th).

Analysts expect corn production to be cut from 15.8 billion bushels to 15.716 billion bushels (equivalent to a reduction from 401.32 million tonnes to 399.19 million tonnes), while the yield is projected to fall from 178.5 bushels per acre to 177.6 bushels per acre (equivalent to a decline from 11.204 tonnes per hectare to 11.148 tonnes per hectare).

On the U.S. soybean front, analysts expect the 2026/27 U.S. soybean production estimate to be slightly raised to 4.541 billion bushels (123.6 million tonnes), compared with the September estimate of 4.535 billion bushels (123.43 million tonnes). Soybean yield is expected to rise from 52.8 bushels per acre to 52.9 bushels per acre (from 3.551 tonnes per hectare to 3.558 tonnes per hectare).

Analysts also expect U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year to increase from 310 million bushels to 311 million bushels (from 8.44 million tonnes to 8.46 million tonnes).

For U.S. corn, ending stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year are projected at 1.677 billion bushels (42.6 million tonnes), compared with the September estimate of 1.567 billion bushels (39.8 million tonnes). This expected sharp increase is attributed to the quarterly report released at the end of last month, which showed carryover stocks far exceeding expectations. The 2026/27 marketing year for corn began on September 1.

For U.S. wheat, analysts expect ending stocks to rise from 717 million bushels to 722 million bushels (from 19.52 million tonnes to 19.65 million tonnes).

As for global inventories, EquipeA.com.br cited analysts as saying that global soybean reserves at the end of the 2026/27 marketing year are estimated to be revised down from 124 million tonnes to 123.8 million tonnes. The global corn inventory estimate is set to be raised from 272.1 million tonnes to 273.9 million tonnes. For wheat, the global inventory estimate is expected to increase from 276.3 million tonnes to 276.8 million tonnes.

According to the latest USDA export sales report, for the week ending October 1, U.S. soybean net export sales for the 2026/27 marketing year came in at only 549,400 tonnes, down sharply by 484,200 tonnes from 1.034 million tonnes the previous week, a week-on-week decline of 46.85%. U.S. corn net export sales for the 2026/2027 marketing year were 769,000 tonnes, compared with 536,000 tonnes the previous week. U.S. wheat net export sales for the 2026/2027 marketing year were 452,000 tonnes, compared with 289,000 tonnes the previous week. U.S. soybean meal net export sales for the 2026/2027 marketing year were 1.048 million tonnes, compared with 213,000 tonnes the previous week.