On July 17, Muyuan Foods fell 3.11% in regular trading, trading at HKD 33.0/share, with turnover of HKD 69.16 million. The stock retreated after two consecutive sessions of rebound.

On the news front, the company previously disclosed an expected H1 net loss of RMB 5.7 billion to 6.7 billion, with average commercial hog selling price at approximately RMB 10.4/kg, down around 28% year-on-year. Although national hog prices have rebounded above the RMB 11/kg threshold with cumulative gains exceeding 20% from recent lows, the current industry average breeding cost stands at approximately RMB 12/kg. Hog prices remain below the industry-wide breakeven line, indicating that fundamental pressure at the cycle bottom has not been fundamentally alleviated.

Separately, Guotai Haitong Securities noted that June breeding sow inventory continued to decline, with third-party data showing month-on-month decreases of 0.72% to 0.98%, suggesting ongoing capacity reduction. The brokerage forecasts Q2 as the peak loss quarter, with losses expected to narrow sequentially going forward.

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