**Gold Market Analysis and Trend Outlook:**
September 25th Gold Market Update: During Wednesday evening's U.S. trading session, spot gold experienced high-level consolidation and decline, trading around $2,641.80. In the Asian morning session, gold prices opened down $15 to the $2,650 level following cautious comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding potential rate cuts. Subsequently, unexpectedly strong unilateral gains in Hong Kong and A-shares boosted risk appetite, leading gold to rally sharply by nearly $30, reaching a high of $2,679. Currently, influenced by a 0.5% intraday rise in the U.S. Dollar Index, gold's gains have narrowed, but prices maintain a bullish tone for the fourth consecutive trading day. This week's U.S. economic data calendar includes: Thursday's final Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and durable goods orders data, as well as Friday's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. These data releases will dominate short-term U.S. dollar movements and spot gold price fluctuations.
**Gold Technical Analysis:** From current market conditions, for intraday trading, we maintain a bullish but not chase-higher approach, focusing on buying dips and avoiding top-picking. After Tuesday's extreme rally to $2,692, midnight brought significant adjustment with lows at $2,652. This $40 decline hasn't changed gold's temporary bullish trend, suggesting at most a high-level consolidation phase. Therefore, we maintain the low-long principle for Wednesday, watching whether the $2,700 level breaks. Technically, the current candlestick closed below the Bollinger upper band, potentially indicating consecutive adjustments on Wednesday and Thursday before consolidation. While the outlook remains bullish, avoid excessive optimism as mid-term corrections may emerge during adjustments. Strong support below lies at $2,615; as long as this level holds, gold is unlikely to experience a bullish-to-bearish reversal.
From a 4-hour timeframe perspective, three consecutive bearish candles at high levels have altered the previous pattern of consecutive bullish closes reaching new highs. This pattern may signal a weekly top. If Wednesday continues the decline, a medium-term top formation could target $2,615 or lower. However, if Wednesday closes higher, breaking this bearish sequence, bulls may re-emerge with potential for new highs. Overall, while gold faces medium-term correction risks short-term, we maintain a primarily low-long approach until a clear top is established. Intraday support levels are at $2,620 and $2,615 for long positions, while monitoring the $2,700 level above. In summary, today's gold short-term strategy focuses on buying dips as the primary approach, with limited counter-trend shorts. Upper resistance targets the $2,660-2,670 zone, while lower support focuses on the $2,620-2,610 zone.
**Crude Oil Market Analysis and Trend Outlook:**
**Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis:** During Wednesday's Asian morning session, Brent crude futures rose $0.27 to $67.90 per barrel, while U.S. WTI futures gained $0.28 to $63.69. The previous day saw both benchmark oils rise over $1. Market consensus attributes the short-term rally to supply tightening. Firstly, the Kurdish region of Iraq's pipeline exports to Turkey remain unrestored, with approximately 230,000 barrels per day still in deadlock as Iraq's central government, Kurdish regional government, and relevant oil companies haven't reached agreement on debt repayment guarantees. Current oil price increases aren't driven by demand improvement but dominated by supply disruptions. U.S. inventory declines, Kurdish export deadlock, and Venezuela's supply constraints are all intensifying market supply tightening expectations. However, once official data confirms inventory increases, oil prices may face correction pressure. Overall, oil prices maintain medium-to-short-term support, but volatility will increase, requiring vigilance for data-driven short-term impacts.
**Crude Oil Technical Analysis:** From daily chart perspective, after consecutive bearish candles halted, a narrow range bottom formation emerged. Oil prices repeatedly crossed moving average systems, establishing a medium-term objective sideways trend. Monday's temporary break below range support hasn't formed continuous downward momentum, with crude oil expected to maintain weak consolidation patterns medium-term. Short-term (1H) crude oil has rebounded from lows, rallying consistently upward. Moving average systems show bullish alignment with short-term objective upward direction. MACD indicators show fast and slow lines crossing above zero axis, operating at high levels above zero with strong bullish momentum. From higher timeframe perspective, crude oil shows range-bound trading. Following the principle of smaller timeframes serving larger ones, intraday short-term movements should maintain upward rhythm within the range. In summary, today's crude oil strategy emphasizes buying dips as primary approach with limited counter-rallies. Upper resistance targets the $66.0-67.0 zone, while lower support focuses on the $63.0-62.0 zone.