Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that, when used appropriately, policymakers' practice of signaling future interest rate paths can still have a positive effect.

Waller made these remarks during a conference in Rome. This comes after the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh pledged to reduce the central bank's reliance on so-called "forward guidance," shifting instead to an approach more focused on adjusting policy based on changes in economic data.

Waller indicated that forward guidance remains a valuable policy tool. During the period of surging inflation in the pandemic era, forward guidance helped the central bank communicate to the public that interest rates would rise. This led to a tightening of financial conditions in advance, even before the Fed had officially begun raising rates.

However, he also noted that Fed officials have at times been too rigid in their application of forward guidance, which has instead constrained their own policy flexibility. He cited as examples 2020 and 2021, when the Fed explicitly stated it would keep rates unchanged for a period, even as inflation was already beginning to rise rapidly.

Waller said, "I still believe forward guidance is a valuable tool that has significantly enhanced the effectiveness of monetary policy at certain times and will continue to be useful in the future. But forward guidance is more of an art than a science. Sometimes, instead of aiding policy formulation, it can become an impediment."