For stock investors, professional analyst reports offer authoritative, timely and comprehensive insight to help uncover potential thematic opportunities. This week, the three major indices pulled back, with the Shanghai Composite falling 0.74%, the Shenzhen Component dropping 1.91% and the ChiNext Index declining 2.93%. How will the market develop from here? Let's see what the institutions have to say.

China Securities (CSC): Prioritize defense, seek counteroffensive opportunities

On allocation, against the backdrop of elevated long-end overseas interest rates and the approaching third-quarter earnings season, the recommended approach centers on "prioritizing defense while seeking counteroffensive opportunities," using dividend sectors such as banks, utilities and coal as the base position, with a preference for names offering stable dividends and solid cash flow; on the growth side, selectively watch AI computing hardware directions such as PCB and optical modules.

Shenwan Hongyuan: Short-term AI chain still faces headwinds, but mid-term opportunities are increasing; the effective AI chain aesthetic remains unchanged

The short-term AI chain still faces headwinds, but this is a phase of increasing mid-term opportunities, and the effective AI chain aesthetic remains unchanged: 1. A small number of directions whose fundamental expectations can exceed those of end-June. 2. Those whose 2027 prosperity continues to improve relative to 2026 may be the directions that strengthen amid divergence after earnings digest valuations. 3. Value thematic investments in both tech and non-tech. The time span in which non-tech directions outperform is lengthening, and the period of absolute returns from high dividends is also lengthening. In non-tech tracks, the key directions remain unchanged: CXO, innovative drugs, coal, shipping, precious metals, industrial metals and basic chemicals. After the new rules on property sales, the sector has entered a phase of resolving legacy issues and laying out incremental policy; combined with short-term bright spots in property sales, real estate may see repeated pulse opportunities in the short to medium term. High dividends and tech tracks exhibit a "seesaw effect," and on that basis one should watch banks and utilities. Before clues of the market returning to strength emerge, one can still hold high dividends on a defensive basis.

Everbright Securities: Short-term repair window opens; fourth-quarter anchor may shift to policy expectations

A short-term repair window is opening, and the fourth-quarter anchor may shift to policy expectations. In the short term, the market may usher in a "repair window after risk release"; looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the market's core anchor may shift from earnings-side upside surprises to changes in policy expectations. On one hand, domestic fundamentals are stabilizing and improving, with the September manufacturing PMI rising into expansion territory; among the 21 surveyed industries, 12 posted PMI above the threshold, four more than the previous month, indicating an expansion in the manufacturing prosperity cohort, and National Day holiday consumption data were solid, which is expected to boost market confidence. On the other hand, capital has not left the market; Wind data show that on October 8, equity ETFs saw overall net inflows of 17.907 billion yuan, with broad-based ETFs recording the largest net inflows at 10.997 billion yuan; on the afternoon of October 9, a large number of broad-based ETFs continued to see volume expansion. Looking ahead, the core anchor of the fourth-quarter market will shift from earnings-side upside surprises to changes in policy expectations, and combined with the improvement in the external environment brought by the phased easing of China-US relations, the lower bound of risk appetite is relatively clear. Watch three balanced allocation directions. Direction one: the policy chain, i.e., positioning along the key directions of policy support, covering the infrastructure chain, property chain, consumption chain and various sub-sectors. Direction two: hard tech tracks. Focus on semiconductors, AI, high-end manufacturing and other fields with core technological barriers and domestic substitution logic; these sectors benefit both from the upward cycle of the global technology industry and from the national policy orientation toward technological innovation and self-reliance, offering strong growth certainty and valuation elasticity. Direction three: other sectors with bottom-up prosperity, such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, pharmaceuticals and non-bank financials, which rely more on their own fundamental logic to generate independent performance, do not depend on strong macro policy stimulus, and can provide some excess returns amid market volatility.

Orient Securities: Use equity hedging thinking to capture structure; commodities return to supply and demand to find beta

Equities: short-term rotation, mid-term barbell. Equities are currently range-bound, with the focus on structure. Since July, everyone has been focused on the divergence and convergence of the K-shaped pattern, so the barbell strategy has performed well. The fourth quarter is the year's finale, and the K-shaped issue will return to view, but it is not expected in October. As mentioned earlier, the October main line lies in overseas interest rates and risk premiums, and at this point the barbell may not be the optimal solution. In other words, throughout the fourth quarter, equities have a probability of returning to the barbell in the mid-term, but in the short term the focus should be on energy chemicals and tech-related sectors, rotating in line with the main line's switch between risk appetite and interest rates, with dividends used to hedge against declining risk appetite as appropriate.

Guosen Securities: A-share tech catch-up will not be absent; year-end rally can be expected

A-share tech catch-up will not be absent, and a year-end rally can be expected. Currently, A-shares are at the low of a wave-4 correction heading into the early stage of a wave-5 advance, and the catch-up depends on positive catalysts from three major factors. First, new industry catalysts: personal AI agents represented by Muse and AI4S are expected to drive AI demand to accelerate again; if applications enter commercial procurement, computing power and infrastructure investment are expected to be revised upward again. Second, chip clearing: among actively managed equity funds heavily positioned in tech, the proportion of suspected position adjustments may have reached 30%, with most funds' holdings cleared to April-May levels, down to 60-80% of their highs; as selling pressure eases, positive news is more easily converted into gains. Third, stabilization of overseas liquidity: the 10-year US Treasury yield once approached 5.4%, a new high since 2002, but September nonfarm payrolls and unemployment data were both weaker than expected, the probability of no rate hike at the October FOMC exceeds 80%, and combined with a window for ending the Middle East conflict, if liquidity pressure eases, the STAR 50, whose valuation has contracted 36%, is expected to see repair.

Zheshang Securities: Keep mid-line positions restrained for now and wait for an intermediate bottom to re-form

Although the main A-share indices still posted negative returns this week, after a process of "sharp decline - sharp rebound," market selling pressure has been significantly released and counterattack forces are gradually building. From a technical structure perspective, the main decline since mid-August may have ended, and even if there is further volatility ahead, it will be difficult to repeat the previous downward slope. Specifically, the Shanghai Composite challenged the July 20 low of 3741 this week; that level, together with the "924 rally" high of 3674, is expected to form the mid-line support for the Shanghai Composite in this round. The ChiNext Index hit a low of 2932 this week, just touching the 0.5 retracement level of this bull market, and is expected to oscillate around that level and rebuild a mid-line bottom (the STAR 50 is similar). Notably, we pointed out last week that the Hang Seng Tech Index has entered a "work-in-progress" weekly MACD bottom divergence and is building a medium-to-long-term bottom; based on this week's price action, that judgment carries considerable confidence, and Hang Seng Tech is expected to confirm its bottom structure within 1-2 weeks. On allocation, based on the judgment that "the mid-line bottom is beginning to re-form, stay confident and wait for it to take shape," we recommend: on timing, keep mid-line positions restrained for now and wait for the intermediate bottom to re-form, with additional allocation to be reconsidered after the mid-line bottom structure is rebuilt. On sectors, still recommend choosing sectors and industries that fell heavily earlier and appropriately balancing the allocation, continuing to participate in the subsequent行情 with a balanced structure. In addition, the Hang Seng Tech Index was the first to decline last October and is now leading A-shares in building a medium-to-long-term bottom, which deserves attention.

Soochow Securities: Recommend "balanced on both sides" between tech and non-tech

Computing hardware prosperity, property chain policy and third-quarter earnings certainty names. The October allocation approach recommends "balance on both sides" between tech and non-tech. Position in computing hardware's third-quarter prosperity verification and policy and earnings certainty directions such as the property chain and energy, while also taking into account low-valuation defense. On the tech side, position in computing hardware sub-sectors, including domestic computing power and the semiconductor supply chain, advanced packaging, PCB and its specialized equipment and other segments where orders and earnings are accelerating; at the same time, watch tech leaders that have been sufficiently adjusted earlier and whose earnings downgrades and policy impacts are fully priced in, seizing their valuation repair opportunities. On the non-tech side, recommend 1) watching the property chain, especially post-property-cycle directions such as consumer building materials, which benefit from the implementation of policies such as mortgage interest subsidies, PSL expansion and the reform of existing-home sales, and which have subsequent expectations of a package of incremental policies; 2) watching cyclical upstream directions such as chemicals and natural gas, where prosperity is recovering and prices are rising steadily; 3) watching consumer leaders with continued earnings delivery and still attractive valuations, as well as non-ferrous varieties with tight supply patterns.

Founder Securities: The market may be poised for a turnaround moment

The market may be poised for a turnaround moment, mainly for three reasons. First, volume expansion in broad-based ETFs alleviates concerns about a negative liquidity feedback loop, the consensus that we are at the year's bottom range strengthens, and after the holiday effect fades, trading volume and margin balances gradually return, with risk appetite expected to improve. Second, internal and external macro variables show signs of improvement; the probability of further escalation of the US-Iran conflict before the US midterm elections is not high, US Treasury auctions have gone well, and the worst of high oil prices and bond yields is passing. Domestically, relevant policies on domestic demand have begun to act, and policy space for further strengthening has been preserved. In addition, China-EU trade negotiations have produced a consensus list of outcomes, better than previously expected. Third, after the recent adjustment, the cost-effectiveness of stocks has further strengthened, with the equity risk premium of the SSE 50, CSI 300 and Wind All A at the 85th, 77th and 72nd percentiles of the past 10 years, respectively. 3. Allocation strategy recommendations: actively position and seize the fourth-quarter long window, watching three allocation opportunities. First, the oversold rebound in tech; after entering October, tech catalysts increase, AI's industry trend and prosperity remain relatively solid, and after the recent sharp pullback the allocation value has risen significantly; watch the changes in public fund holdings to be disclosed in October, with tech stocks tilting internally toward sub-sectors that can raise prices, expand volumes and achieve new technological breakthroughs. Second, watch opportunities to buy HALO assets on dips; after oil prices pull back, focus on non-ferrous metals plus chemicals related to core resources. Third, non-bank financials, which respond most directly to monetary policy changes, have good earnings-valuation matching, and can stabilize the index.

Huajin Securities: A-shares may rebound after short-term bottoming; structural slow bull trend unchanged

From the current perspective, A-shares may rebound after short-term bottoming, and the structural slow bull trend remains unchanged. (1) The short-term economy and earnings may repair and rebound. First, the short-term economy may repair from a low level: first, short-term exports may maintain high growth; second, the downward pace of short-term property investment growth may slow, and manufacturing investment and infrastructure investment growth may stabilize and rebound; finally, short-term consumption growth may pick up somewhat. Second, short-term corporate earnings may continue to be in an upward trend. (2) Short-term liquidity may remain accommodative. First, short-term macro liquidity may remain accommodative: first, the Fed may find it difficult to hike rates in October, but the negative impact of rising US long-term bond yields on liquidity and risk appetite may still exist; second, short-term domestic macro liquidity may still remain accommodative. Second, short-term stock market capital inflows may improve marginally. (3) Short-term policy and external events may be relatively positive. First, short-term policy may remain relatively positive. Second, short-term external risk may remain relatively small: first, the short-term US-Iran conflict may be difficult to escalate, and negotiations may continue; second, the game in the technology field does not change the trend of short-term China-US relations remaining stable.

Huayuan Securities: Continue to maintain a balanced allocation strategy and avoid excessive bets on a single sector

In September, A-share market volatility intensified, with some indices giving back all their year-to-date gains. The three observation clues we summarized in a previous report still hold. First, the market fundamental picture reflected in the full-A sample financial reports since 2025 is K-shaped divergence against a backdrop of median decline; 2026 interim report data show the trend continues, prompting us to further examine the fundamental pressure on some sectors. Second, for companies at the upper edge of the K-shaped divergence, some sectors had overly full narrative expectations earlier, which instead caused excellent earnings to fail to match valuations, with companies showing valuation downgrades against fundamental upgrades; however, after the pullback over the past few months, some companies' valuations have entered a reasonable range and require further selection. Third, valuation swings in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and South Korea's memory "twin giants" have led to a strong mapping relationship in related domestic assets; in September the global AI industry chain as a whole was in a period of delivering on existing narratives, with the weight of trading factors increasing and both upside and downside risks present, requiring further attention to narrative changes brought by key nodes of giant companies in the fourth quarter. The combination of the three clues has led to intensified market volatility at present, and a trend-driven market still requires patiently waiting for clearer signals. From a return-risk ratio perspective, we recommend maintaining a balanced allocation strategy in October, avoiding excessive bets on a single sector, placing more emphasis on companies' own quality and the robustness of their business models, and recommending selecting companies with solid cash flow support and valuation safety margins; steady progress is the way to go far.

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