As of the evening of May 12th, spot gold was fluctuating near $4,700 per ounce, while spot silver hovered around $84 per ounce. On the same day, UBS released a view maintaining its year-end price forecasts for gold and silver unchanged, expecting them to reach $5,600 and $100 per ounce, respectively.
UBS indicated that from a medium to long-term perspective, the upside potential for gold prices is strengthening. The factors supporting the rise in gold prices remain unchanged, with growth in both personal and official demand continuing to solidify the upward trend. Gold is gradually becoming a core allocation in investment portfolios. If the gold price retraces to the $4,000 per ounce level, it should be seen as a good opportunity to accumulate gold holdings. Chinese gold ETFs have performed notably well, with continuous net inflows of funds, while domestic physical demand has also remained strong since the beginning of the year.
Huaan Fund's research report shows that after a deep correction, gold prices are at a relatively low level. Future U.S. economic data performance and a marginal recovery in expectations for interest rate cuts could become key catalysts driving gold prices.
Morgan Stanley, in a recent report, maintained its forecast for gold to reach $5,200 per ounce by the end of 2026, stating that the core drivers of the current international gold price have shifted from safe-haven demand to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the trend of real yields.
Looking ahead, Huaan Fund believes that the structural factors supporting the medium to long-term trend of gold have not changed: the demand for gold purchases from central banks in emerging markets continues to be released, with global central banks making net purchases of 244 tons in the first quarter. As a strategic asset hedging against "fragmentation risks in the international order" and "sovereign credit currency risks," gold's value in diversifying risks within investment portfolios remains solid.
Regarding silver, UBS expects that strong physical demand from China will also provide support, helping to improve global investor sentiment. Due to the significantly higher volatility of silver prices compared to gold, managing its risk exposure is more challenging. Therefore, the market's investment mindset towards silver remains primarily tactical rather than strategic allocation.