On September 16, Casey's General fell 5.17% in regular trading, trading at approximately $589.95/share with turnover of $336 million, extending its post-earnings selloff and pulling back over 30% from its June all-time high.
The continued decline follows mounting concerns over peak fuel profitability. UBS noted that Casey's August fuel margin retreated to the low 40-cent-per-gallon range, reinforcing fears that the industry's best days for fuel earnings may be behind it. Meanwhile, years of vendor price increases on center-store snacks are squeezing affordability for lower-income consumers, weighing on the grocery and general merchandise category where same-store sales growth decelerated to 2.7%.
Although fiscal Q1 EPS of $7.37 beat the $6.72 consensus estimate and revenue of $5.678 billion topped forecasts, same-store sales growth of 3.2% missed the 4.1% expectation, triggering a wave of price target cuts. JPMorgan slashed its target from $975 to $833 while maintaining a Neutral rating, and Evercore ISI reduced its target from $975 to $880. Market sentiment remains under pressure as investors reassess the sustainability of margin expansion.
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