【Shanghai Copper】 Factors such as the energy crisis in Peru and declining ore grades have led to expanded production cuts at major mines in South America. Meanwhile, the restart progress of Freeport Indonesia's Grasberg mine has been significantly delayed due to issues with its underground transport system, with capacity estimated to have recovered only about 60%. The tight supply situation for copper concentrate has intensified, strengthening the upward momentum for copper prices.

【Shanghai Aluminum】 Aluminum prices showed strength in yesterday's trading, with alumina prices stabilizing at low levels. On the macro front, U.S. President Trump's state visit to China fostered a positive market risk sentiment. Regarding aluminum supply and demand, concerns over a tight global supply persist as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Domestically, although inventory levels remain relatively high, destocking has begun. Optimistic demand expectations, coupled with the overall strong performance of the non-ferrous metals sector, are providing support for aluminum prices. For alumina, the export policy for Guinea's mining sector has not yet been finalized, with pricing still primarily cost-driven. Overall, against the backdrop of global scarcity, the medium to long-term upward trend for aluminum remains unchanged. The surplus situation in alumina is difficult to reverse, but expectations for the mining sector and cost factors provide some price support.

【Shanghai Nickel】 On the macro front, President Trump's visit to China and the release of positive signals could boost nickel export demand if the talks lead to favorable outcomes such as reduced trade tariffs. On the news front, Huadi Indonesia's nickel smelter has suspended operations entirely, severely impacted by cuts in nickel ore quotas. In summary, regarding production, the reduction in nickel ore quotas is shifting from expectation to reality, and production via the hydrometallurgical route is temporarily difficult to restore. Attention is on potential production cuts in Indonesia's nickel smelting sector in May. Price-wise, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has postponed the imposition of higher royalties and export taxes on nickel and related mineral products, leading to a retreat in short-term tax hike expectations. However, with raw material prices remaining elevated, cost-side support persists. Nickel prices may maintain a strong, volatile pattern. Strategically, it is advisable to buy on dips or sell out-of-the-money put options.