Weaker Dollar and Reduced Fed Rate Hike Expectations Propel Industrial Metals and Gold Higher

Stock News
8小时前

Industrial metals, including copper, have advanced amid a softening US dollar and diminishing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

On Friday, copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) climbed as much as 1%, positioning the metal to snap a two-week losing streak.

Gold prices also surged strongly, with spot gold surpassing $1,900 per ounce, marking an intraday gain of 1.62%, while COMEX gold rose up to 1.9%, breaching the $1,900 per ounce level.

Weak US employment data has tempered market expectations for further Fed tightening, alleviating some downward pressure on industrial demand.

A two-day decline in the US dollar index has also provided support for metal prices.

Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed non-farm payrolls increased by just 257,000 last month following significant downward revisions to the prior two months' figures, coming in at roughly half of market expectations.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% from 4.3% in the previous statistical month.

The subdued economic figures are likely to reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its next meeting in July.

Swap markets now price in only an 18% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's next meeting, down from as high as one-third earlier in the week.

Industrial metals have faced pressure in recent weeks as Federal Reserve officials signaled a tightening monetary policy stance, with aluminum being particularly affected.

Aluminum prices have retreated to pre-conflict levels on expectations of restored supply from the Middle East region.

The number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz has increased since a provisional peace agreement was reached between the US and Iran last month.

Brent crude oil prices have erased their gains made during the conflict.

"The weaker dollar, influenced by falling oil prices and soft US jobs data, is beneficial for copper," stated Li Xuezhi, head of research at Chaos Ternary Futures, adding, "However, persistent weakness in traditional industries will cap copper's upside."

Separately, Citigroup forecasts that aluminum prices will bottom out within the next month before gradually recovering to a range of $3,300 to $3,500 per tonne between September and December.

The bank bases this view on several factors, including a more dovish tilt in Fed policy, declining real interest rates, an improving demand outlook, and persistently low inventories measured in days of consumption.

Aluminum prices have fallen approximately 20% over the past month from around $4,450 per tonne, disrupting a bull run that had lasted for over a year.

Nevertheless, Citigroup believes the current environment is not suitable for shorting aluminum, as the market was already in a supply deficit before the recent shocks, and new supply is unlikely to meet demand growth in a timely manner.

The bank also noted that market concerns over a rapid return of Middle Eastern supply may be exaggerated.

At the time of writing, LME copper was up 0.7% at $13,413 per tonne; aluminum gained 0.6% to $3,110 per tonne; nickel surged 1.8% to $16,540 per tonne; while zinc and tin prices also moved higher.

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