Every generation of players has its own collectible obsession, from snuff bottles and bird-keeping to bead-stringing and stamp collecting, while today's generation chases blind boxes and Labubu.

The common essence of all these hobbies can be summed up in one sentence: humans externalize uncontrollable time, emotion, identity, and loneliness into tangible, accumulable, displayable, and shareable carriers, thereby gaining a sense of order, companionship, and meaning in an uncertain world.

Broken down, several fundamental attributes emerge.

Turning time into something visible

Stamp collecting is about accumulating slices of history, bead-stringing produces a patina, keeping birds builds rapport, and collecting awaits appreciation in value.

The essence is the same: letting passing time leave a trace. Time is uncontrollable, but the wear on objects, patina, completeness of sets, and vintage years make time perceptible and accumulable.

Projecting emotion onto objects

Dolls, pets, bead bracelets, and models are all emotional containers. People need an object that will not betray, will not judge, and is always present, to house companionship, attachment, desire for control, even paternal or maternal instincts. What is played with is an object; what is projected is the self.

Creating a small order within a disorderly world

Stamps by set, coins by year, figurines by series, birdcages by rules, curios by condition. Collecting and playing both come with built-in classification, hierarchy, rules, and scarcity. The essence is: the big world is too chaotic, so the small world must be controllable. The more orderly this small world is, the more secure people feel.

Using scarcity to manufacture meaning and identity

Limited editions, out-of-print items, condition, patina, breed, bloodline, rank, these are all artificially created scarcity. Scarcity is not just for appreciation in value; it is more about distinguishing myself from others. Playthings are social currency and also identity signatures: what you play with, how you play, and to what level, all say who I am.

Turning play into flow and stress relief

Bead-stringing, bird-walking, model-building, blind-box opening, and gaming all involve repetitiveness, focus, and instant feedback. The essence is: using low-risk concentration to counter high-anxiety reality. When the hands are busy, the heart is temporarily not empty.

Combating loneliness and impermanence

Dolls, pets, collections, and hobbies all ultimately point to one thing: people need companionship and also need to leave something behind. Objects do not die, collections can be passed down, and patina grows thicker. They are helping people fight loneliness, forgetting, and death anxiety.

So dolls, stamp collecting, bird-walking, bead-stringing, models, and blind boxes appear diverse on the surface but share the same underlying psychological mechanism: externalizing the self, anchoring time, creating order, exchanging identity, and housing emotion.

To sum up in one sentence: people always need something to touch, to wait for, to accumulate, to show off, and to accompany them. Playthings are extensions of people and also the tiny meaning systems people build for themselves.

The essence of commercial value is scarcity

It is not that someone likes it that gives it value, but that it is wanted yet unobtainable that generates a premium.

Why was stamp collecting once valuable? Because early stamps were consumed through use, had limited surviving quantities, and were hard to complete into sets. Why did the entire market shrink later? Because stamps lost their function while issuance volume spiraled out of control. Once mass-produced, stamps went from collectibles to printed paper, from scarce assets to symbolic scraps.

The same applies to Labubu. It is not a naturally scarce item and can be industrially mass-produced. What does its premium rely on? Blind-box probability, hidden editions, limited collaborations, and secondary-market speculation. This is artificial scarcity, not real scarcity.

The greatest fear of artificial scarcity is a surge in supply. Once factories run at full capacity, hype fades, and secondary-market prices fall back, a single item's collectible attribute will rapidly collapse. Mass production will strip it from scarce symbol back to industrial doll.

Therefore, from a long-term perspective, the business model of Labubu is not favored, and the logic is simple: what it sells is not a scarce asset but symbolic heat. Symbolic heat cannot support stable cash flow.

Non-essential demand cannot support stable cash flow

Essential demand means having to have it even without wanting it; non-essential demand means buying only if you like it, only if you can afford it, only if you follow the trend.

So Labubu's demand is highly dependent on emotional value such as cuteness, ugly-cute appeal, and stress relief; social currency such as photo sharing, community circles, and celebrity endorsements; gift scenarios such as giving to others and the surprise of opening blind boxes; and the economic environment, as discretionary consumption is the first to be compressed.

When the economy declines, hype fades, and secondary prices fall, non-essential demand is the first to suffer. Non-essential business is not incapable of making money, but it cannot support the word stable. Essential business can ride through cycles on repeat consumption and certain demand; non-essential business relies on emotion, social currency, and constantly manufacturing novelty.

Novelty runs out, symbols age, and every generation has its own Labubu.

What is even more fatal is the combination: non-essential demand times industrial mass production times artificial scarcity created through blind boxes and limited editions times single-IP heat driven.

This combination can bring high growth during an upcycle, but the growth comes from hit products and speculation, not from stable repeat purchases. Once the symbol cools, the secondary premium collapses first, repurchases decline, inventory rises, discounts clear stock, and cash flow volatility amplifies. What it supports is phased high growth and high volatility, not stable cash flow.

Do not comfort yourself with the idea that Barbie and Lego are still alive.

Barbie and Lego were both symbols of a generation and both experienced decline. Barbie had sales fluctuations, aesthetic controversies, and brand aging; Lego nearly went bankrupt in 2003 to 2004 and later survived through licensing and adult collecting, but that was transformation for survival, not a victory for trend dolls.

What they prove is not that dolls can be eternal, but that every generation has its own dolls, old symbols age, and new symbols arrive. Hit products change generations, and symbols go out of style. Every generation has its own Labubu, and the next generation will have a new cute-pet image to replace it.

So not favoring Labubu's stock is not because of failing to understand trends, but because of seeing through the commercial essence of trends: non-essential, mass-producible, relying on artificial scarcity and symbolic heat to support a premium, unable to support long-term growth and stability of cash flow.

Once stamp collecting could be mass-produced, it became a symbol; once Labubu is mass-produced, it too will be knocked from collectible back to industrial doll. Barbie and Lego both declined, and every generation has its own Labubu. Symbols change, heat fades, mass production dilutes scarcity, and non-essential demand cannot support stable cash flow.

A fair assessment is this: Labubu has the pet-doll dividend of this generation of young people, and it will last about 15 years, after which something new will definitely emerge.

These 15 years are not the lifespan of a single Labubu product, but the window for the company to use this dividend to grow its next IP. The heat of a single product will most likely peak and diverge in 3 to 5 years, while the category window is about 10 to 15 years. Something new will definitely come later; this is inevitable.

The dividend is real, the cycle is limited, and new playthings are inevitable; Labubu will become the symbol of this generation, but the value of POP MART (09992) depends on whether the company can, within the window period, stop relying only on Labubu.

Labubu is the symbol of this generation of young people. Its current popularity does not mean it can cross generations. Even Barbie and Lego must constantly extend their lives through movies, licensing, communities, and adult collecting, while Labubu currently relies more on single-IP heat, blind-box mechanics, artificial scarcity, and celebrity endorsements. It has not yet proven that it can escape the symbol cycle.