Fresh assaults in the Gulf region have dampened expectations for a swift reopening of the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping route, triggering an increase in European natural gas prices.

On Thursday, Europe's benchmark natural gas futures rose by as much as 4%, recovering from a decline the previous day. Prices have been highly volatile this week as hostilities have clouded the outlook for peace negotiations.

The United States conducted an airstrike on an Iranian military facility and imposed new sanctions aimed at preventing Iran from benefiting from vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked a U.S. military base involved in the operation, according to a post on social media platform X by Iran's Press TV. This escalation follows previous statements by the U.S. President emphasizing that no single nation should control this vital waterway, highlighting the core obstacle to resolving the conflict.

The renewed surge in tensions jeopardizes an already fragile ceasefire agreement. The uncertainty surrounding the conflict's duration is amplifying market anxiety, as European traders are scrambling to replenish severely depleted natural gas inventories. With the arrival of summer and a gradual uptick in Asian demand for natural gas, Europe may face more intense competition for seaborne liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes this winter, potentially driving prices higher in the near term.

Senior industry analyst Patricio Alvarez noted in a report, "The Strait of Hormuz accounts for 20% of global LNG supply. If navigation cannot be restored quickly, regional LNG price differentials could widen, competition for marginal cargoes would intensify, and combined with historically low inventory levels, significant upward price pressure is evident. With 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity impacted, prices are likely to remain above pre-conflict levels even if hostilities end rapidly."