Abstract

VNET Group will report quarterly results on May 26, 2026, Pre-Market; investors will focus on whether forecast revenue growth near 20% materializes, how margins trend as capacity ramps, and whether adjusted EPS aligns with guidance as the sales mix shifts toward larger-scale contracts.

Market Forecast

The market’s current baseline points to a moderate top-line acceleration and uneven earnings. For the current quarter, the company’s forecast data indicate revenue of RMB 2.68 billion, up 20.63% year over year, EBIT of RMB 191.11 million, up 30.01% year over year, and adjusted EPS of -0.24, implying a year-over-year change of -108.83%. A formal outlook for gross profit margin and net profit margin was not provided in the forecast dataset. Management’s core revenue engine remains hosting and related services, with near-term performance tethered to capacity turn-up timing and power availability that influence utilization and unit economics. Analysts consistently flag wholesale and AI-related compute deployments as the most promising demand vector this year; the expected delivery cadence and backlog progress are viewed as the key swing factors for revenue conversion and operating leverage.

Last Quarter Review

VNET Group’s last reported quarter delivered RMB 2.69 billion in revenue (up 19.62% year over year), a gross profit margin of 20.11%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 305.00 million, a net profit margin of 11.34%, and adjusted EPS of 1.02 (up 1,800.00% year over year). On execution, revenue surpassed consensus by RMB 35.49 million, while EBIT came in at RMB 153.01 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 35.44% as operating costs and ramp-related expenses tempered operating leverage. Within the revenue mix, hosting and related services stood out as the principal driver, with segment revenue cited at RMB 9.95 billion across the reporting scope; a comparable quarter-specific year-over-year segment growth rate was not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Hosting and related services: revenue conversion and margin cadence

The company’s hosting and related services underpin the quarter’s revenue trajectory, with the forecast calling for RMB 2.68 billion in total sales and a 20.63% year-over-year increase. The cadence of cabinet and power turn-ups is critical for converting signed commitments into recognized revenue; any slippage in customer ready dates or infrastructure energization dates can defer recognition into later quarters. Operating leverage should gradually surface as occupancy builds, but near-term gross margin outcome will depend on the balance between new-site ramp costs and utilization of existing footprints. Mix matters for profitability: a higher contribution from multi-MW wholesale contracts typically compresses per-unit pricing but can still expand absolute gross profit through higher utilization and lower sales costs, while a larger retail component tends to support higher ARPU at the cost of longer ramp and higher support overhead. The prior quarter’s 20.11% gross margin sets a baseline; absent explicit guidance, the near-term direction will be governed by how quickly new capacity transitions from expense drag to revenue-generating assets. Net profit margin last quarter was 11.34%, aided by non-operating items and scale effects; for this quarter, consensus expects neutral-to-negative EPS as the company invests for growth, so investors will examine whether operating expense intensity normalizes as revenue scales. With EBIT forecast at RMB 191.11 million (up 30.01% year over year), management’s cost discipline and the timing of maintenance and ramp-related operating expenditures will be closely watched. If revenue lands in line and utilization trends positively, EBIT should benefit; conversely, delays in large-customer deployments or heavier-than-anticipated pre-operating costs could skew EBIT below the company’s baseline. Finally, management’s commentary on churn, repricing, and renewal activity in the installed base will help frame the sustainability of revenue growth beyond this quarter.

AI-driven and wholesale deployments: the most promising growth vector

AI-oriented and wholesale-scale deployments remain the most watched growth vector this year. Analyst notes indicate that a material share of recent order intake is tied to compute-intensive workloads, with several institutions highlighting a high proportion of wholesale and AI-linked contracts in the pipeline and deliveries planned through 2026. This demand tends to concentrate in high-density, power-rich halls, which can accelerate revenue ramp once powered and accepted, while also requiring more up-front capital and coordination with utilities and equipment vendors. The company’s revenue forecast—up 20.63% year over year—implicitly assumes that a meaningful portion of the signed or shortlisted opportunities start to convert within the quarter or shortly thereafter, supporting both top-line growth and visibility into the second half. The unit economics of wholesale AI deployments differ from traditional retail colocation: per-MW pricing may be lower, but higher utilization and lower customer acquisition costs typically support attractive incremental margins over the life of the contract. That said, near-term gross margin can be pressured during the ramp as fixed operating costs come online ahead of full utilization. Investors will parse disclosures on power allocation, energization progress, and contracted backlog to gauge the reliability of the delivery schedule; every percentage point of incremental utilization can have a disproportionate impact on gross profit at this stage of the ramp. Analyst commentary also frames a competitive pipeline dynamic around high-density blocks for select anchor customers, which, if awarded and delivered as expected, could tilt revenue and EBIT higher versus baseline. This informs the focus on EBIT’s 30.01% year-over-year growth forecast: if wholesale conversions accelerate and operating costs stabilize as a percent of sales, EBIT expansion could exceed revenue growth, even with adjusted EPS temporarily negative due to interest, depreciation, or non-cash items. Conversely, any shortfalls in ramp execution or procurement bottlenecks would likely keep EPS under pressure in the near term.

Stock-price swing factors: funding, ownership changes, and near-term EPS

Short-term share performance is likely to hinge on three interlocking variables: the earnings print versus the company’s baseline, the visibility and timing of new capacity deliveries, and progress on capital and ownership transactions that shape balance sheet flexibility. On capital, the company completed a private placement of approximately 0.14 billion US dollars in new equity during late February, bolstering liquidity for capacity expansion and working capital. There has also been market chatter regarding potential dollar bond financing aimed at funding AI-focused buildouts. The combination, if executed prudently, would support the conversion of signed opportunities into revenue, but investors will monitor any incremental interest expense and its impact on near-term EPS, which is currently forecast at -0.24 for the quarter. On ownership, the company disclosed that two PJ Millennium units (linked to a well-known battery ecosystem) agreed to purchase up to 650.4 million Class A shares from existing shareholders at RMB-equivalent terms, with the transaction expected to close in the fourth quarter and accompanied by a voting agreement with the founder for a defined period. While not directly impacting this quarter’s revenue or EBIT, the increased alignment and capital support can improve medium-term execution confidence and, by extension, equity risk perception. The market reaction to those announcements—punctuated by notable pre-market moves—illustrates how governance and funding visibility can amplify or dampen the share’s response to quarterly results. Finally, the interplay between revenue acceleration and EPS optics will shape the post-earnings narrative. Revenue is forecast to grow double digits, EBIT to expand year over year, yet adjusted EPS is expected to be negative given depreciation ramps, interest, and the lag between cost recognition and revenue scale. The degree to which management can show sequential improvement in margins, articulate concrete delivery milestones, and reaffirm the booked-to-bill trajectory will likely matter more for the stock than the headline EPS figure alone. Guidance around second-half deliveries and any qualitative update on large-customer deployments will be central to how the market updates its models.

Analyst Opinions

Based on recent commentary, the balance of views is bullish. Across collected opinions for the January 1, 2026 to May 19, 2026 window, we find 100% bullish calls (e.g., DBS, Bank of America Securities, Goldman Sachs, Nomura) and no bearish ratings, indicating a decisive tilt toward positive expectations into the print. The core of the bullish thesis is that revenue growth should accelerate as wholesale and AI-linked orders progress into delivery, with EBIT benefitting from scale despite near-term EPS pressure. Bank of America Securities maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $15.10, emphasizing the pipeline of large-scale deployments and the potential for higher revenue conversion as capacity is energized. The bank’s view dovetails with the company’s own forecast of RMB 2.68 billion in quarterly revenue, up 20.63% year over year, and EBIT of RMB 191.11 million, up 30.01% year over year, implying that operating leverage can begin to assert itself even as depreciation and financing costs weigh on EPS. This line of reasoning suggests that investors should look beyond a single negative EPS print to assess the slope of margin recovery and the cadence of capacity turn-ups. DBS also reiterated a Buy stance and raised its target in recent notes to as high as $16.70, citing the supportive demand environment for high-density workloads and the company’s ability to bring on capacity in step with customer requirements. DBS expects continued order momentum to underpin revenue visibility and sees the present investment cycle as positioning the company for stronger growth later in the year. Nomura raised its target to $14.10 while keeping a Buy rating, highlighting the improving balance between growth and profitability as larger deployments convert and as cost intensity normalizes against a rising revenue base. Goldman Sachs maintained a Buy rating with a $15.50 target, pointing to the potential for additional capacity reserve expansion tied to AI compute needs and framing the company’s shift toward larger wholesale contracts as a structural positive for revenue scale. From a modeling standpoint, this perspective is consistent with the company’s forecast pattern—revenue growth outpacing EPS near term as new assets ramp, then margin expansion as utilization climbs. The implied trade-off in the first half—investing through the P&L to enable second-half deliveries—features prominently in Goldman’s constructive stance. Supplementing these ratings, institutional commentary noted strong order inflows during the fourth quarter of 2025 and the possibility of further announcements around sizable blocks for key customers. While the company has kept some order disclosures at a high level, analysts generally concur that the backlog and pipeline are sufficient to sustain double-digit revenue growth this year, provided that infrastructure and power timelines remain on track. This consensus helps explain why the majority view remains constructive despite an EPS estimate of -0.24 for the quarter and reflects confidence that EBIT growth of 30.01% year over year is achievable if revenue lands near RMB 2.68 billion. In sum, the analyst majority expects the quarter to showcase tangible revenue progress, steady if not immediate margin improvement, and clear markers on delivery milestones that validate the ramp narrative. The ratings and targets—$15.10 from Bank of America, up to $16.70 from DBS, $15.50 from Goldman Sachs, and $14.10 from Nomura—cluster around a constructive risk-reward profile predicated on execution against a healthy delivery schedule. The upcoming report’s most important proof points will be revenue realization near the RMB 2.68 billion baseline, commentary on utilization and energization, and clarity on funding and ownership developments that together inform the sustainability and pace of growth through the second half of 2026.