Coal sector stocks saw their gains accelerate in afternoon trading. As of the latest data, MONGOLIA ENERGY (00276) rose 9.26% to HK$0.59, KINETIC DEV (01277) climbed 5.88% to HK$1.89, YANKUANG ENERGY (01171) advanced 5.25% to HK$12.22, and CHINA COAL (01898) gained 2.78% to HK$10.73.

On the news front, on August 5th, the thermal coal price index was raised across the board, with 5,500 kcal grade coal quoted at 839 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan per ton. Reports indicate that supply-side tightness persists. Great Wall Securities pointed out that the comprehensive operating rate in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions has continued to decline since a coal mine explosion incident in Shanxi on May 22. The impact on Shanxi's operating rate is significant, and the market should pay attention to the potential for severe supply-demand mismatches during the summer season.

Changjiang Securities noted that the coal industry is facing a capacity reduction window period in 2026. The effective supply of thermal coal is expected to decrease by 1.9% year-on-year to 3.806 billion tons, putting short-term supply under pressure. Additionally, the policy side's "anti-involution" efforts continue to intensify. Through overproduction inspections, the aim is to stabilize coal prices. The brokerage forecasts that the average price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal in the first half of 2026 will rebound 13.2% year-on-year to 767 yuan per ton.