Recent field visits to major apple-producing regions in Shaanxi and Shandong, along with interviews with industry enterprises and analysts, reveal that the anticipated surge in stockpiling for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays has not materialized this year. The market remains lukewarm, characterized by weak downstream consumption, a growing array of substitute fruits, and cautious purchasing by merchants, while the price gap between high-quality and inferior apples continues to widen, reinforcing the trend of premium pricing for superior goods.

Subdued Stockpiling Compared to Last Year, Weak Downstream Demand is the Primary Factor

"The number of merchants stocking up for the Double Holiday this year is relatively low; those with established clients and markets have already completed their purchases, with prices roughly consistent with last year," noted Lei Yinfang, general manager of Shaanxi Yan'an Zhongguo Agricultural Science and Technology Co., Ltd. As procurement activities in production areas gradually unfold, the number of buying merchants has increased, but purchase prices have been steadily declining. The apple sales season in Yanchang County, Shaanxi, has started reasonably well, primarily due to high-end customers competing for premium-quality apples. However, the Yan'an production area has suffered from natural disasters such as hailstorms, resulting in a low rate of high-quality fruit and intensifying competition among premium buyers for the limited supply of superior apples.

Dai Gaobo, a representative from Liansheng Fruit and Vegetable, stated that the company's stockpiling volume for this year's Double Holiday has dropped by 30% to 40% compared to last year. He attributed this decline to reduced consumer spending, an increase in substitute fruits, and rising intermediary costs. Cold storage inventory has been slow to deplete, with remaining apple stocks doubling compared to the same period last year. Merchants show little enthusiasm for building large inventories, with on-demand purchasing becoming the prevailing approach. Sun Yafei, futures department manager at Shaanxi Huasheng Modern Agriculture Group Co., Ltd., described this year's pre-holiday apple stockpiling as "lukewarm." "Low-priced apples are moving decently, but sales of mid-to-high-priced varieties are not performing well, and overall activity is nowhere near last year's level," he said, noting that many fruit categories have experienced weak market performance this year.

Regional Disparities Emerge, Price Gap Between Premium and Lower-Quality Apples Expands

This year's apple market exhibits a distinct regional divergence. Yan Junyong, an agricultural products analyst at Chang'an Futures, pointed out that remaining apple inventories in Shandong consist mainly of mixed-grade and ordinary-quality fruit, leading to cautious merchant procurement. The increased supply of "Red General" apples has further diverted demand, dampening the overall stockpiling atmosphere. In contrast, the northern Shaanxi and Qingyang regions, where early-ripening high-quality fruit is scarce, maintain a relatively active stockpiling environment supported by gift-box demand, and pre-harvest orders for late-ripening "Fuji" apples have already begun. In terms of pricing, early-ripening "Fuji" apples in the Yanchang production area opened at around 4 yuan per jin for 75mm and above bulk fruit, but have now fallen to approximately 3 yuan per jin. Apples with slight hail damage have dropped from an initial 2.8 to 3 yuan per jin to about 2 yuan per jin. In Shandong, high-quality "Red General" apples are priced at around 3 yuan per jin, while lower-grade varieties fetch about 2 yuan per jin.

"This divergent pattern is likely to persist this year," Sun Yafei predicted. Merchants increasingly prefer sourcing higher-quality supplies; good fruit commands high prices early in the season, but if volumes increase and quality deteriorates, prices will correspondingly decline.

Divergent Expectations for Late-Ripening "Fuji" Opening Prices

Opinions vary among interviewees regarding the expected opening prices for this year's late-ripening "Fuji" apples. Lei Yinfang projects that high-quality 75mm and above fruit will open at 3.5 to 4.0 yuan per jin, consistent with last year's levels. Overall, apples this year are larger in size and of better quality than in previous years, but the availability of premium fruit is limited, while a significant portion suffers from hail damage or inferior quality, which will likely cause purchase prices to gradually decline. Dai Gaobo, on the other hand, anticipates that opening prices for high-quality late-ripening "Fuji" apples in Shandong in 2026 could be 0.3 to 0.6 yuan per jin lower than last year.

"It's difficult to predict the exact opening price. Shaanxi apple prices are unlikely to be exceptionally low and may exceed market expectations, but overall they should not reach last year's levels," Sun Yafei commented, emphasizing that post-harvest weather conditions significantly impact fruit quality. If the proportion of marketable fruit is low, merchants may compete fiercely for premium supplies. Gao Xianjun, from the futures department of Shaanxi Wangzhangzhang Agriculture Co., Ltd., holds a more pessimistic view. "This year's apple output is higher than last year, and purchase prices will likely not exceed last year's levels. Given that cold-stored apples last year generally sold at a loss after the Chinese New Year, market expectations for this year's prices are already subdued. Early-ripening 'Fuji' apples are trading 0.5 yuan per jin lower than last year, and late-ripening 'Fuji' apples will probably see a similar or even larger year-on-year decline."

Weather and Consumption Trends Warrant Close Monitoring Going Forward

Several interviewees believe that the pre-holiday stockpiling activity will provide limited support to apple spot prices this year. "It feels like Mid-Autumn Festival stocking has had no impact on the market, and there is no short-term trading narrative around it," Sun Yafei observed. Gao Xianjun echoed this sentiment, noting that the Mid-Autumn stockpiling wave has failed to ignite, remaining relatively flat, with early-ripening fruit prices opening high and then trending downward, indicating a weak market tone.

Yan Junyong identified four key reasons for the sluggish Double Holiday stockpiling: first, expectations of a bountiful harvest have suppressed midstream and downstream inventory-building intentions, as merchants tend to buy on rising rather than falling prices; second, a timing mismatch exists since late-ripening "Fuji" apples only hit the market after the National Day holiday, leaving merchants without fresh premium supplies before the holiday; third, low-priced substitute fruits such as pears and citrus in autumn; and fourth, weak discretionary end-consumer spending, with channels primarily replenishing in small batches for essential needs.

Despite this, Yan Junyong remains cautiously optimistic about the outlook. He suggests monitoring weather impacts on the premium fruit yield of late-ripening varieties. The concentrated bag-removal period for late-ripening "Fuji" apples occurs in late September; if prolonged rainy weather damages the premium fruit rate, there could be a window for expectation gap corrections in the apple futures 2701 contract. Conversely, if the overall premium fruit rate remains high, the premium-for-quality theme may persist, with strong basis for high-quality goods extending throughout the year.

Yan Junyong further elaborated that over a longer horizon, the weak pre-holiday stockpiling sentiment and its diminished intensity compared to the Spring Festival have become an established trend. Apple consumption habits are deeply rooted in Spring Festival traditions; the Double Holiday lacks strong ties to apple demand, and fruit gift boxes do not dominate seasonal consumption. At the same time, year-round and diversified fruit supply has transformed apples from a "primary autumn and winter fruit" into a regular year-round category. The concentrated autumn availability of citrus, pears, and kiwifruit creates additional competition for apple consumption. Moreover, distribution channels are becoming increasingly streamlined, with direct sourcing and e-commerce platforms steadily replacing traditional wholesale inventory models, further eroding the need for bulk pre-holiday stockpiling.

Interviewees agree that the bifurcation between premium-priced good fruit and unsellable poor-quality fruit will continue. Against a backdrop of weak consumer demand, improving fruit quality, expanding e-commerce and new retail channels, and reducing intermediate distribution costs have become shared challenges that all industry participants must address collectively.