Following the performance of non-ferrous metals, the oil and gas sector has continued the commodity market trend, becoming a recent focus in the market.

Since the beginning of the year, driven by factors such as a shift in the global macroeconomic cycle and geopolitical risk premiums, the oil and gas sector has continued to strengthen. Tongyuan Petroleum surged by 173.01%, while stocks such as Intercontinental Oil and Gas, China Merchants Energy Shipping, COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation, and Jereh Group rose by over 50%. The CSI Oil and Gas Resources Index increased by 33.07% overall. More than 8 billion yuan flowed in through ETF channels, making it a popular direction favored by capital.

However, with the variety of oil and gas funds available, which differ significantly, how to avoid the "trap" of high premiums and choose tools that match one's investment logic has become a practical challenge for investors.

Over 8 billion yuan entered the market via funds to snap up shares. On February 27, the oil and gas sector rose sharply again, with Heshun Petroleum hitting the daily limit-up, and stocks like Jereh Group and Shengtong Energy rising over 5%. Multiple oil and gas ETFs increased by more than 2%.

Taking a longer-term view, the global oil and gas sector moved in unison. ICE Brent crude rose from $58.72 per barrel at the end of last year to above $70 per barrel. The Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index gained 18.43% year-to-date, while the CSI Oil and Gas Resources Index rose 33.07%. Stocks such as Tongyuan Petroleum and Potential Energy saw their prices double.

As the market strengthened, substantial capital flowed into funds to position in the oil and gas sector. Data show that since the start of the year, over 8 billion yuan has been net流入 oil and gas ETFs. Among them, Guotai Oil ETF and Penghua Oil ETF attracted net inflows of 2.991 billion yuan and 1.542 billion yuan, respectively.

The recent rise in the oil sector is not due to short-term speculative trading but is the result of combined factors including the global macroeconomic environment, crude oil supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical risks, and capital rotation preferences.

From a macro perspective, global monetary conditions and the economic cycle are supporting higher oil prices. Since 2026, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have gradually materialized, leading to a阶段性 weakening of the U.S. dollar index. As crude oil is a core dollar-denominated commodity, it exhibits a clear negative correlation with the dollar. A weaker dollar directly enhances原油's financial attributes and allocation value, steadily pushing international oil prices higher.

In terms of supply and demand, the supply side is the core support of this rally. OPEC+ continues to maintain large-scale voluntary production cuts, strictly controlling crude oil exports. Combined with tightening U.S. sanctions on oil-producing countries like Iran and Venezuela, global crude oil supply elasticity has significantly decreased, keeping the market in a tight balance. Over the past decade, long-term underinvestment in upstream capital expenditure in the global oil and gas industry has led to slow deployment of new production capacity, creating a noticeable "production capacity cliff." Even with moderate demand growth, large-scale oversupply is unlikely, forming a solid floor for oil prices.

Meanwhile, geopolitics has become a key catalyst for rising oil prices. Tensions in the Middle East and increased shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz have led the market to continuously price in geopolitical risk premiums, further boosting expectations for higher oil prices and making crude oil the commodity with the most significant upward elasticity currently.

However, it is worth noting that oil and gas funds are complex, with considerable internal differentiation and varying degrees of correlation with oil prices. Different products have significant differences in underlying assets, performance benchmarks, and risk-return characteristics. Investors need to understand their intrinsic logic to achieve precise allocation.

Specifically, oil and gas funds can be divided into three categories: crude oil commodity funds (QDII-LOF), overseas oil and gas equity funds (QDII stocks), and domestic oil and gas equity funds (A-share ETFs). A research report has previously provided a detailed comparison of these three types of products.

Crude oil commodity funds, represented by products like Harvest Crude Oil LOF (benchmarked against WTI), Southern Crude Oil LOF (tracking WTI + Brent), and E Fund Crude Oil LOF (benchmarked against the S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index), are direct tools for investing in oil prices. They hold overseas ETFs through a FOF structure to track WTI or Brent crude. However, they have higher fees and are subject to QDII quota limitations. Off-market purchases are often suspended or limited to small amounts, leading to on-market congestion and high premiums. Additionally, the underlying investment is essentially crude oil futures, facing rollover cost risks—where contango can cause long-term underperformance compared to spot prices.

Overseas oil and gas equity funds, represented by products like Huaan Oil LOF, Huabao Oil & Gas LOF, and Bosera S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production QDII, primarily invest in global energy giants or upstream exploration companies. Returns come from oil price fluctuations and corporate growth, offering greater elasticity. However, due to depleted foreign exchange quotas, most funds have suspended large subscriptions, causing severe supply-demand imbalances and inflating secondary market prices.

Domestic oil and gas equity funds, represented by products like Penghua China Securities Oil & Gas ETF, Guotai CSI Oil & Gas Industry ETF, and China Universal CSI Oil & Gas Resources ETF, have underlying assets deeply tied to the "Big Three" oil companies and leading oil service providers. They combine high dividend yields with energy defensive attributes. Their advantages include lower fees (generally around 0.67%–0.77%), no cross-border friction costs, and no foreign exchange quota restrictions, allowing open subscriptions and redemptions.

The main矛盾 in current oil and gas fund investment lies in the high cost of direct oil-linked varieties (high premiums + high rollover costs) and the less pure exposure of domestic oil and gas equity varieties. Investors should be cautious of high premium traps in overseas-type funds caused by QDII purchase restrictions and avoid盲目 chasing prices when premium rates exceed 30%. While domestic oil and gas ETFs have a discount advantage, investors must accept their稳健 nature偏向 dividend stocks rather than pure oil price beta.

Currently, crude oil commodity funds and overseas oil and gas equity funds in the market are generally subject to off-market purchase restrictions. Large amounts of capital can only participate through on-market channels, which has somewhat pushed up on-market premiums.

For example, on February 27, the Bosera S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Initiate Fund (QDII) announced large purchase restrictions. Starting March 2, the cumulative daily subscription, conversion-in, and fixed-amount investment per fund account for A and C class RMB shares through various sales agencies (excluding Bosera Wealth Fund Sales Co., Ltd.) should not exceed 200 yuan. For USD cash shares, the amount should not exceed 100 USD.

Some funds have completely closed their doors. On February 13, Huaan Oil Fund (LOF) announced the suspension of subscription and fixed-amount investment services, less than half a month after it reduced the purchase limit from 10 yuan to 2 yuan on January 30.

Data shows that as of February 27, nine oil and gas funds in the entire market were either suspending subscriptions or limiting large purchases. These products are primarily QDII funds tracking indices like the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index and the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index.

With off-market shares in short supply, the premium rates of oil and gas funds on the secondary market have continued to surge. Several asset management companies, including E Fund, Fullgoal Fund, Southern Fund, and Huaan Fund, have recently issued premium risk warnings for their oil and gas funds. Among them, the premium rates for Huaan Oil Fund (LOF) and E Fund Crude Oil (LOF) have reached as high as 20.07% and 15.33%, respectively.