October 2: In the previous trading day on Thursday (October 1), international gold closed higher amid choppy trading, finding stability after earlier losses as the stalemate and escalation in the Middle East, mixed U.S. economic data, hawkish and dovish signals from various Federal Reserve officials, moderate inflation expectations, and long-term buying from central banks pursuing structural de-dollarization all played out within the session. Bearish momentum weakened, suggesting a bias toward bottoming and consolidation in the near term, with prospects for a stabilization and subsequent rebound.

In terms of specific price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4,159.98 per ounce, first hitting an intraday low of $4,139.15 at the 8 o'clock hour, then rebounded to reach an intraday high of $4,192.72 around midday at 13:00, after which it fluctuated repeatedly within the day's high-low range, ultimately closing at $4,177.12. The daily range was $53.57, with a gain of $17.14, or 0.41%.

Looking Ahead to Today, Friday (October 2)

International gold opened with narrow-range choppy trading, supported by the upward momentum from yesterday's late-session recovery and easing bullish pressure from crude oil and the U.S. dollar index in the early session. However, yesterday's sharp rally is still capping gold's upside and exerting some pressure, with short-term gold prices biased toward bottoming, consolidation, and adjustment.

Today's focus will be on U.S. September unemployment rate, U.S. September nonfarm payrolls (in thousands), U.S. September average hourly earnings year-over-year and month-over-month, and U.S. August factory orders month-over-month. Current market expectations lean toward a higher probability of bullish outcomes for gold, but based on this week's ADP and initial jobless claims data, actual figures could fall short of expectations and weigh on gold. As such, intraday price action is still expected to be dominated by choppy trading or rebounds. Trading strategy can focus on short-term short positions with a bias toward buying on dips.

Technical Analysis

On the weekly chart, gold fell early this week, moving further away from the 30-week and middle-band resistance, with bearish momentum intensifying and Bollinger Bands tilting downward, suggesting further downside momentum ahead. However, prices are currently stabilizing and rebounding near the ascending trend channel support, also indicating expectations for choppy trading and continued adjustment above this support while awaiting strength. If prices continue to consolidate above this support going forward, a scenario similar to the April-August 2025 consolidation followed by a rally could emerge, with the $4,100 level as a reference support for bullish positioning, potentially targeting the $4,700 and $5,100 levels. Conversely, if prices decline further, the ascending trend channel dating back to 2024 could also offer bullish opportunities, with the channel support zone at $4,100-$3,800 as an area to continue building bullish positions.

On the daily chart, gold closed with a choppy session yesterday, showing a tendency toward bottoming and consolidation before turning bullish and rebounding. In terms of strategy, one can continue to look for bottom support to go long, watching the 5-day moving average support, the Bollinger Band lower rail support, and the ascending trendline support for entry points, waiting for consolidation to complete before a stronger rebound toward the 30-day moving average resistance target at $4,350 and the 200-day moving average resistance above $4,500.

Intraday Trading Reference Levels

Gold: Watch support at $4,155 or $4,135/$4,120; watch resistance at $4,205 or $4,230. Silver: Watch support at $60.35 or $59.70; watch resistance at $61.60 or $62.30.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors who act on this information do so at their own risk.