The first-quarter reports of mutual funds have been fully disclosed last week. Looking back at the A-share market in the first quarter of 2026, it generally showed a trend of volatile recovery, but with significant structural divergence. Influenced by global geopolitical factors, particularly the situation in the Middle East, energy prices remained high, driving active performance in cyclical sectors. At the same time, domestic policy support for new productive forces remained strong. Although the TMT sector experienced fluctuations under the impetus of AI concepts, it continued to be a key area for active market capital. On the other hand, constrained by external tariff barriers and slow capacity clearance in some industries, traditional manufacturing and certain export-dependent sectors performed relatively weakly. Overall market risk appetite oscillated between expectations for "pro-growth policies" and "external inflationary pressures." While trading volume increased compared to the fourth quarter of last year, investor sentiment remained cautiously optimistic.

Quarterly reports have always been an important window to observe institutional strategies and market judgments, often attracting significant attention. Later, I will share some noteworthy first-quarter reports. Against the backdrop of increasingly fierce competition in the mutual fund industry and intensified存量博弈, how small and medium-sized mutual funds leverage their resource advantages to find incremental space is a topic of common concern across the industry. By reviewing the first-quarter report of Bank of Shanghai Fund, it can be seen that the company has formed relatively clear investment research judgments on macroeconomic trends and industrial directions. Therefore, I would like to share some relevant views from this company today.

Regarding the overall macroeconomic基调, Bank of Shanghai Fund believes that the Chinese economy is at a critical turning point characterized by weak current reality but strong expectations. First-quarter price data has confirmed the recovery of prices on both the supply and demand sides, and monetary policy continues to maintain loose liquidity. However, imported inflation caused by the conflict in the Persian Gulf has become the biggest suppressant of current risk appetite. Economic recovery, the transformation of the macro development paradigm, and high oil prices are the three key variables currently affecting investments in China across all asset classes.

For the fixed income market, imported inflation driven by high international oil prices is gradually reducing the probability of interest rate cuts, but loose monetary policy will also keep interest rates low. The uncertainty brought by the transformation of the economic development model, on one hand, creates a tug-of-war on interest rates (investment-driven inflation versus deflationary pressures from demographics and the AI paradox), and on the other hand, highlights the "defensive attributes" of fixed income due to uncertainty in the economic development path. Therefore, Bank of Shanghai Fund stated that fixed income investments should generally build certainty at the short end through coupon income, seek excess returns by capturing trading波段, and enhance overall returns through multi-strategy approaches.

For the equity market, Bank of Shanghai Fund believes that, in the short term, heightened geopolitical risks from regional conflicts and high oil prices have further strengthened the commodity cycle intensity that began around 2020, increasing market focus on resource-related products. Within the sector, some rotation is advisable given the historically high prices of certain underlying assets. For instance, it might be appropriate to moderately allocate to some commodities like lithium carbonate and minor metals that have seen significant gains, while increasing allocations to oil & gas and coal, which benefit from a higher mid-term oil price equilibrium. Additionally, industrial metals are expected to experience high景气 in the long run due to demand driven by the AI era and concerns over US dollar credit.

From a medium-term perspective, China's advantageous industrial chains relative to the global market are worth attention amid the backdrop of price recovery. These include energy storage and wind power under the new energy umbrella, smart grids within infrastructure, and new energy vehicles which continue to show strong export performance globally. Other areas include innovative drugs that have achieved sustained high growth in B/D this year, and consumer sectors benefiting from a domestic demand recovery. These sectors are relatively independent of the geopolitical conflict narrative and are值得关注 for pursuing portfolio resilience.

In the long term, the industrial chain related to artificial intelligence presents significant future opportunities, as it involves a fundamental transformation of China's economic growth paradigm. On the hardware side, this includes providers serving the domestic digital economy strategy and participating in computing power network construction, as well as equipment manufacturers in the semiconductor产业链 with strong确定性. The explosive demand for computing power chips and memory chips directly boosts the景气 of upstream semiconductor equipment and materials industries. Concurrently, increased uncertainty in the external geopolitical environment further strengthens the trend of domestic substitution in the semiconductor field and the premium for supply chain stability, highlighting prominent structural opportunities in the sector. AI computing power驱动 and domestic substitution will be the core logic for AI investments in the A-share market.

Judging from Bank of Shanghai Fund's strategic analysis above, its overall investment research logic is clear and comprehensive, emphasizing the deep integration and synergy across macro, meso, and micro dimensions. The company's investment research system moves beyond single-dimensional linear analysis. It uses macro research to anchor overall trend direction, relies on meso-level industry research to solidify the core抓手 for asset allocation, and employs micro-level stock selection to implement specific investment operations. This three-tiered, interconnected research system effectively avoids the limitations of single-dimensional decision-making. It is reported that the company is focusing on strengthening its multi-asset allocation capabilities by integrating diverse investment tools including stocks, bonds, commodities, derivatives, and overseas assets to establish a model-based dynamic portfolio management system.

Data shows that by the end of the first quarter of 2026, Bank of Shanghai Fund's overall assets under management grew to 288.9 billion yuan, with public fund business规模 reaching 254.8 billion yuan and non-monetary fund规模 at 151.9 billion yuan. Against the backdrop of intensified competition in the asset management industry, the company's sustained growth in management规模 aligns with the iteration of its investment research framework and the development of multi-asset capabilities, demonstrating strong business resilience.