CMSC: Maintains "Strong Buy" Rating on POP MART (09992), Expects Q3 2025 Financial Report Soon

Stock News
10/21

According to recent research published by CMSC, the firm continues to assign a "Strong Buy" rating to POP MART (09992). The upgrade is based on several factors: 1) the overseas organizational structure promotes sustained healthy growth abroad; 2) the strong potential of intellectual property products like the "Spirit Team" LABUBU and Xingxingren. As a result, the profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upward, with adjusted net profits expected to reach 10.96 billion, 14.92 billion, and 18.31 billion yuan for those respective years (previous estimates were 10.37 billion, 14.21 billion, and 17.36 billion yuan), corresponding to adjusted P/E ratios of 32.3x, 23.8x, and 19.4x for 2025-2027. The company is expected to release its Q3 operational updates for 2022, 2023, and 2024 on October 25, 24, and 22, respectively, signaling an upcoming Q3 2025 update. Considering the strong momentum from new product launches and continuous growth across all channels, if we assume that the adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 accounts for 27.5% of the full-year adjusted profit (assuming the profit margin for Q4 2024 is the same as for Q3 2024, resulting in a 29.8% contribution, while accounting for the impact of new releases and restocking schedules, we anticipate a y-o-y decline), and that the profit margins for Q2 2025 align with those of Q1, thus yielding a 25.9% contribution. Assuming an adjusted profit margin of 33%, the firm projects that Q3 2025 revenue will grow by 154.2% year-on-year, and approximately 8.9% quarter-on-quarter, totaling 9.17 billion yuan. Adjusted net profit is expected to increase by 198.6% year-on-year, amounting to 3.03 billion yuan (the growth rate for revenues in Q3 is disclosed; absolute values and profit forecasts are for reference).

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