For stock investors, the Golden Qilin analyst research report offers authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive insights to help uncover potential thematic opportunities.

Breaking past 100 billion yuan! Bond ETFs are experiencing a massive surge, with HFT Investment Management and Bosera Asset Management leading the pack.

Bond ETFs have absolutely exploded! As of September 23, the total latest scale of 53 bond ETFs across the entire market reached 1,001.999 billion yuan, crossing the one-trillion-yuan threshold for the first time.

Since the establishment of China's first bond ETF (Guotai SSE 5-Year Treasury Bond ETF) in March 2013, the market did not see an explosive surge until 2025: that year, the first batch of 8 benchmark market-making corporate bond ETFs and two batches totaling 24 science and innovation bond ETFs continued to expand the product matrix. While enriching the supply of bond-type ETFs, the scale climbed rapidly, breaking through 800 billion yuan by the end of 2025 and now reaching yet another new high.

Recently, the product side of the fixed-income market has seen multiple positive changes. The restart of applications for amortized-cost bond funds and the concentrated filing of the first batch of off-exchange science and innovation bond index funds have brought expectations of incremental capital flowing into the bond ETF sector.

Bond ETF Scale Breaks One Trillion Yuan for the First Time, 37 Products Exceed 10 Billion Yuan

As of September 23, bond ETFs have seen net capital inflows of 160.504 billion yuan this year, with the latest scale reaching 1,001.999 billion yuan. Especially since the second half of the year, as the one-sided extreme tech rally ended, over 100 billion yuan of capital poured into bond ETFs amid risk-averse sentiment.

From the perspective of the overall ETF market, bond-type ETFs account for nearly 20% and have become an important tool for both institutional and individual investors in asset allocation. With only 53 products supporting a one-trillion-yuan scale, the average scale of a single bond ETF reaches 18.9 billion yuan, representing a massive volume. There are already 37 bond ETFs with a scale exceeding 10 billion yuan, with a combined scale of approximately 840 billion yuan, accounting for over 85% of the total bond ETF scale, showing highly concentrated and institutionalized characteristics.

From the perspective of product types, science and innovation bond ETFs represent the track with the largest number of ten-billion-yuan products and the fiercest competition. A total of 15 science and innovation bond ETFs across the market exceed 10 billion yuan in scale, with a combined scale of approximately 270 billion yuan. Among them, Harvest Science and Innovation Bond ETF leads with 41.7 billion yuan, followed by Yinhua Science and Innovation Bond ETF (26.8 billion yuan), China Universal Science and Innovation Bond ETF (24.3 billion yuan), ChinaAMC Science and Innovation Bond ETF (20.1 billion yuan), and Penghua Science and Innovation Bond ETF (19.4 billion yuan).

Under homogeneous competition, capital differentiation is evident. This year, Harvest Science and Innovation Bond ETF saw net inflows of 14.1 billion yuan, E Fund Science and Innovation Bond ETF saw net inflows of 6.4 billion yuan, and GF Fund Science and Innovation Bond ETF saw net inflows of 6.9 billion yuan, while science and innovation bond ETFs under Penghua Fund, China Merchants Fund, and Guotai Fund experienced net outflows.

Benchmark market-making corporate bond ETFs represent the largest innovative increment in the bond ETF market this year. Benchmark market-making corporate bond ETFs under E Fund, Southern Fund, ChinaAMC, HFT Investment Management, GF Fund, and Dacheng Fund all achieved net inflows this year, with a combined net inflow of approximately 66.2 billion yuan.

Meanwhile, HFT SSE Urban Investment Bond ETF, with a scale of 55.5 billion yuan and net inflows of 26.1 billion yuan this year, became the product with the largest net capital inflow on the ten-billion-yuan list, truly the biggest dark horse. Under the advancement of debt resolution policies, the credit risk of urban investment bonds has been mitigated, and institutional demand for allocating urban investment bonds through ETFs has surged.

Science and Innovation Bond ETF Scale Approaches 280 Billion Yuan, Benchmark Market-Making Corporate Bonds Most Capital-Absorbing

Among the 25 bond indices tracked by ETFs across the market, as many as 16 ETFs track the AAA Science and Innovation Bond Index, with a combined scale of 277.152 billion yuan, leading by a wide margin. From the perspective of capital flows, science and innovation bond ETFs saw a net outflow of 8.368 billion yuan during the year, reflecting that after last year's explosive growth, some capital took profits or repositioned this year.

However, institutions are not pessimistic about the development of science and innovation bond ETFs. The cash investment department of Penghua Fund believes that driven by four major logics, namely product expansion, limited supply disruption, construction demand from amortized-cost bond funds, and expansion of off-exchange science and innovation bond index funds, science and innovation bond ETFs still present allocation opportunities.

Specifically, from the industry development dimension, since the third quarter, the scale of science and innovation bond ETFs has maintained moderate growth overall. The current scale is at a historical high, which helps improve the trading activity and pricing efficiency of the underlying science and innovation bonds. From the supply side, although the issuance scale of science and innovation bonds has recently rebounded, supply overall has not yet formed sustained pressure exceeding expectations, and primary subscription enthusiasm remains higher than that of ordinary credit bonds. Combined with the semi-annual report update in the second half of September, science and innovation bond supply is expected to decline seasonally, and the supply-demand pattern still has some support. From the incremental capital perspective, the closed-end amortized-cost bond funds that have restarted applications are expected to become important marginal buyers of 3-5 year credit bonds.

The combined scale of Shanghai market-making corporate bond ETFs and Shenzhen market-making credit bond ETFs is nearly 180 billion yuan. Among them, Shanghai market-making corporate bond ETFs saw net capital inflows of 41.324 billion yuan this year, making it the main direction of capital increment this year. At the same time, ETFs tracking short-term financing and urban investment bonds have considerable scale, at 84.036 billion yuan and 55.529 billion yuan respectively. ETFs tracking urban investment bond indices saw net capital inflows of up to 26.107 billion yuan this year, indicating that under the debt resolution backdrop, urban investment bond ETFs have become an important channel for institutional allocation. In addition, ETFs tracking convertible bonds saw net inflows of 11.876 billion yuan this year. Amid equity market volatility, convertible bond ETFs, as products that offer both offense and defense, have maintained their appeal.

From an industry perspective, in terms of allocation trends, capital preference for bond-type products shows three major trends: credit sinking, duration extension, and instrumentization. Especially in terms of duration extension, within rate bonds there has been differentiation, with larger and continuously net-inflowing scales for ETFs tracking 30-year treasury bonds and 10-year treasury bonds; correspondingly, 1-3 year treasury bonds saw net outflows of 4.029 billion yuan this year.

HFT Investment Management and Bosera Asset Management Lead the Way

From the fund company dimension, 43 fund companies across the market have established bond-type ETFs. Among them, HFT Investment Management firmly holds the top position with a scale of 184.8 billion yuan, followed closely by Bosera Asset Management, with Fullgoal, ChinaAMC, E Fund, and Southern Fund forming the second tier. It is worth noting that several small and medium-sized public fund companies have achieved leapfrog development through science and innovation bond ETFs, securing a place on the ten-billion-yuan list.

Specifically, the first tier consists of HFT Investment Management and Bosera Asset Management, both with scales exceeding 100 billion yuan. Among them, HFT Investment Management has 6 bond-type ETFs with a combined scale of approximately 184.826 billion yuan, with a product line covering five major sub-tracks: short-term financing, urban investment bonds, market-making corporate bonds, local government bonds, and convertible bonds, making it the most comprehensively positioned manager in the bond ETF field. Bosera Asset Management has 5 bond-type ETF products with a combined scale of approximately 108 billion yuan, with convertible bond ETFs and 30-year treasury bond ETFs as leaders in their respective sub-tracks.

The second tier (40-80 billion yuan) consists of Fullgoal Fund, ChinaAMC, E Fund, Southern Fund, Guotai Fund, and Harvest Fund. Fullgoal Fund's 7-10 year policy financial bond ETF reached a scale of 47.8 billion yuan, serving as the foundation of the company's bond-type ETFs. ChinaAMC has a dual focus on benchmark market-making corporate bond ETFs and science and innovation bond ETFs. E Fund and Southern Fund take benchmark market-making corporate bond ETFs as their core and science and innovation bond ETFs as a supplement. Harvest Fund entered the second tier with just one science and innovation bond ETF, making it a typical representative of single-product-driven growth.

The third tier (10-40 billion yuan) includes Pengyang Fund, GF Fund, Yinhua Fund, China Universal Fund, Penghua Fund, Huatai-PineBridge Fund, and Tianhong Fund, among others.

Bond ETF Development Still Faces Issues Such as Cross-Market Trading and Insufficient Liquidity

China's bond-type ETFs sprouted in 2013, with total scale first breaking through 100 billion yuan in May 2024, and experiencing an explosive surge in 2025: breaking through 200 billion yuan in February 2025, crossing 500 billion yuan in July, reaching 600 billion yuan in September, and hitting 829 billion yuan by year-end.

Behind this is the dual drive of policy and market development. On January 26, 2025, the Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Indexed Investment in the Capital Market explicitly proposed that, under the premise of effectively preventing and controlling liquidity risks and credit risks, the supply of bond ETF products should be continuously enriched to better meet the low-risk investment needs of on-exchange investors. Support should be given to launching more interest rate bond ETFs with different durations that offer good liquidity and low risk. Benchmark market-making credit bond ETFs should be steadily launched, and research should be conducted on including credit bond ETFs in the general bond repurchase pledge repository, gradually filling the shortcomings in credit bond ETF development.

At the product level, the first batch of 8 benchmark market-making credit bond ETFs was issued at the end of 2024 and collectively listed on January 7, 2025. On July 17, 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced at the Lujiazui Forum to accelerate the launch of science and innovation bond ETFs. Subsequently, two batches of 24 science and innovation bond ETFs were approved and listed, and the bond-type ETF market welcomed dual expansion in both category and scale.

More importantly, the market-making mechanism effectively solved the pain point of poor liquidity in credit bond ETFs, making them a standardized tool for institutional large-capital allocation to credit bonds. For example, on September 22, HFT Short-Term Financing ETF achieved a trading volume of 127.198 billion yuan, setting a single-day trading record. In the view of industry insiders, besides the cash management needs of borrowed funds, the more important reason lies in the activity of market makers.

The attribute of bond ETFs as an institutional capital allocation tool is increasingly prominent, and their scale growth is almost entirely driven by net subscription and redemption inflows rather than net value appreciation.

The one-trillion-yuan scale is a new starting point. In the view of fund companies, competition in the bond ETF market will focus more on first-mover advantages in sub-tracks, market-maker resources, and institutional channel capabilities.